IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v120y2024i11d10.1007_s11069-024-06578-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the functional impacts associated with rainfall-induced hazards for Chinese railway system: fragility, risk and its uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Weihua Zhu

    (Ministry of Transport
    Laboratory of Transport Safety and Emergency Technology)

  • Kai Liu

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Shoudong Wang

    (Ministry of Transport
    Laboratory of Transport Safety and Emergency Technology)

  • Ming Wang

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Shengli Liu

    (Ministry of Transport
    Laboratory of Transport Safety and Emergency Technology)

Abstract

Rainfall-induced landslides, debris flows, and floods pose great risks to the operating service of the Chinese railway system. Evaluating their functional impact is crucial for guiding risk reduction action. Here, we generate an initial set of regional service fragility models and estimate the service risk of the Chinese railway system associated with rainfall-induced hazards. The results reveal noticeable regional differences in service fragility across China. Railways in northern China and western China are highly vulnerable to rainfall-induced hazards, while railways in southern and eastern China are robust. Nationally, 279,000 trains are expected to be affected annually, accounting for 6.45% of the total trains; ~80% of these incidences occur in May-September. In addition, the national railway lines prone to hazards are geographically widespread, especially in Southwest China and Southern China. Railway links such as Wuhan-Guangzhou, Guizhou-Guangzhou and the lines along the southeast coast exhibit higher risk due to their higher failure probabilities and higher train trip flow. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis suggests that fragility models produce high uncertainty for service risk, which justifies the significance of generating detailed regional fragility models. The fragility models and risk maps produced in this paper can be used as an essential step in enhancing the resilience of the railway transport system and provide a data basis and theoretical basis for safe railway operations.

Suggested Citation

  • Weihua Zhu & Kai Liu & Shoudong Wang & Ming Wang & Shengli Liu, 2024. "Estimating the functional impacts associated with rainfall-induced hazards for Chinese railway system: fragility, risk and its uncertainty," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(11), pages 9585-9607, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:11:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06578-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06578-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-06578-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-024-06578-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jan Huizinga & Hans de Moel & Wojciech Szewczyk, 2017. "Global flood depth-damage functions: Methodology and the database with guidelines," JRC Research Reports JRC105688, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Boakye, Jessica & Guidotti, Roberto & Gardoni, Paolo & Murphy, Colleen, 2022. "The role of transportation infrastructure on the impact of natural hazards on communities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    3. Rob Lamb & Paige Garside & Raghav Pant & Jim W. Hall, 2019. "A Probabilistic Model of the Economic Risk to Britain's Railway Network from Bridge Scour During Floods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(11), pages 2457-2478, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Taixin Peng & Ningsheng Chen & Guisheng Hu & Shufeng Tian & Huayong Ni & Ling Huang, 2025. "New rulers for estimating the magnitude of catastrophic debris flows," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(2), pages 1765-1778, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weihua Zhu & Kai Liu & Ming Wang & Sadhana Nirandjan & Elco E. Koks, 2023. "Improved assessment of rainfall-induced railway infrastructure risk in China using empirical data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(2), pages 1525-1548, January.
    2. Shang, Qingxue & Guo, Xiaodong & Li, Jichao & Wang, Tao, 2022. "Post-earthquake health care service accessibility assessment framework and its application in a medium-sized city," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    3. Pei, Shunshun & Zhai, Changhai & Hu, Jie, 2024. "Surrogate model-assisted seismic resilience assessment of the interdependent transportation and healthcare system considering a two-stage recovery strategy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    4. Kurmankhojayev, Daniyar & Li, Guoyuan & Chen, Anthony, 2024. "Link criticality index: Refinement, framework extension, and a case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    5. Johnson, Caroline A. & Flage, Roger & Guikema, Seth D., 2021. "Feasibility study of PRA for critical infrastructure risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    6. Jantsje M. Mol & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Julia E. Blasch & Hans de Moel, 2020. "Insights into Flood Risk Misperceptions of Homeowners in the Dutch River Delta," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(7), pages 1450-1468, July.
    7. Wang, Jie & Zhang, Yangyi & Li, Shunlong & Xu, Wencheng & Jin, Yao, 2024. "Directed network-based connectivity probability evaluation for urban bridges," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    8. Mohamed Kefi & Binaya Kumar Mishra & Yoshifumi Masago & Kensuke Fukushi, 2020. "Analysis of flood damage and influencing factors in urban catchments: case studies in Manila, Philippines, and Jakarta, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2461-2487, December.
    9. Ruben Prütz & Peter Månsson, 2021. "A GIS-based approach to compare economic damages of fluvial flooding in the Neckar River basin under current conditions and future scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 1807-1834, September.
    10. Michele Loberto & Matteo Spuri, 2023. "The impact of flood risk on real estate wealth in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 768, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Tesselaar, Max & Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Robinson, Peter J. & Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H. & Zhou, Fujin, 2022. "Charity hazard and the flood insurance protection gap: An EU scale assessment under climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    12. Julien Boulange & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Masahiro Tanoue & Toshinori Yamada, 2023. "Quantitative evaluation of flood damage methodologies under a portfolio of adaptation scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 1855-1879, September.
    13. Cuneyt Yavuz & Elcin Kentel & Mustafa M. Aral, 2020. "Tsunami risk assessment: economic, environmental and social dimensions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1413-1442, November.
    14. Chen, Tianyi & Wong, Yiik Diew & Shi, Xiupeng & Wang, Xueqin, 2022. "Optimized structure learning of Bayesian Network for investigating causation of vehicles’ on-road crashes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    15. Argyroudis, Sotirios A. & Mitoulis, Stergios Aristoteles, 2021. "Vulnerability of bridges to individual and multiple hazards- floods and earthquakes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    16. Zhang, Jianhua & Min, Qinjie & Zhou, Yu & Cheng, Lilai, 2024. "Vulnerability assessments of urban rail transit networks based on extended coupled map lattices with evacuation capability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    17. Alexandra Toimil & Iñigo J. Losada & Moisés Álvarez-Cuesta & Gonéri Cozannet, 2023. "Demonstrating the value of beaches for adaptation to future coastal flood risk," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    18. Nguyen, Hung & Abdel-Mottaleb, Noha & Uddin, Shihab & Zhang, Qiong & Lu, Qing & Zhang, He & Li, Mingyang, 2022. "Joint maintenance planning of deteriorating co-located road and water infrastructures with interdependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    19. Nocera, Fabrizio & Contento, Alessandro & Gardoni, Paolo, 2024. "Risk analysis of supply chains: The role of supporting structures and infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    20. Kushanav Bhuyan & Cees Westen & Jiong Wang & Sansar Raj Meena, 2023. "Mapping and characterising buildings for flood exposure analysis using open-source data and artificial intelligence," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(2), pages 805-835, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:11:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06578-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.