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Estimating the functional impacts associated with rainfall-induced hazards for Chinese railway system: fragility, risk and its uncertainty

Author

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  • Weihua Zhu

    (Ministry of Transport
    Laboratory of Transport Safety and Emergency Technology)

  • Kai Liu

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Shoudong Wang

    (Ministry of Transport
    Laboratory of Transport Safety and Emergency Technology)

  • Ming Wang

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Shengli Liu

    (Ministry of Transport
    Laboratory of Transport Safety and Emergency Technology)

Abstract

Rainfall-induced landslides, debris flows, and floods pose great risks to the operating service of the Chinese railway system. Evaluating their functional impact is crucial for guiding risk reduction action. Here, we generate an initial set of regional service fragility models and estimate the service risk of the Chinese railway system associated with rainfall-induced hazards. The results reveal noticeable regional differences in service fragility across China. Railways in northern China and western China are highly vulnerable to rainfall-induced hazards, while railways in southern and eastern China are robust. Nationally, 279,000 trains are expected to be affected annually, accounting for 6.45% of the total trains; ~80% of these incidences occur in May-September. In addition, the national railway lines prone to hazards are geographically widespread, especially in Southwest China and Southern China. Railway links such as Wuhan-Guangzhou, Guizhou-Guangzhou and the lines along the southeast coast exhibit higher risk due to their higher failure probabilities and higher train trip flow. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis suggests that fragility models produce high uncertainty for service risk, which justifies the significance of generating detailed regional fragility models. The fragility models and risk maps produced in this paper can be used as an essential step in enhancing the resilience of the railway transport system and provide a data basis and theoretical basis for safe railway operations.

Suggested Citation

  • Weihua Zhu & Kai Liu & Shoudong Wang & Ming Wang & Shengli Liu, 2024. "Estimating the functional impacts associated with rainfall-induced hazards for Chinese railway system: fragility, risk and its uncertainty," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(11), pages 9585-9607, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:11:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06578-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06578-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jan Huizinga & Hans de Moel & Wojciech Szewczyk, 2017. "Global flood depth-damage functions: Methodology and the database with guidelines," JRC Research Reports JRC105688, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Rob Lamb & Paige Garside & Raghav Pant & Jim W. Hall, 2019. "A Probabilistic Model of the Economic Risk to Britain's Railway Network from Bridge Scour During Floods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(11), pages 2457-2478, November.
    3. Boakye, Jessica & Guidotti, Roberto & Gardoni, Paolo & Murphy, Colleen, 2022. "The role of transportation infrastructure on the impact of natural hazards on communities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    4. Argyroudis, Sotirios A. & Mitoulis, Stergios Α. & Winter, Mike G. & Kaynia, Amir M., 2019. "Fragility of transport assets exposed to multiple hazards: State-of-the-art review toward infrastructural resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Yujie & Zhang, Zhipeng & Hu, Hao, 2025. "Risk propagation mechanisms in railway systems under extreme weather: A knowledge graph-based unsupervised causation chain approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    2. Taixin Peng & Ningsheng Chen & Guisheng Hu & Shufeng Tian & Huayong Ni & Ling Huang, 2025. "New rulers for estimating the magnitude of catastrophic debris flows," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(2), pages 1765-1778, January.

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