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Assessment of trends, variability and impacts of droughts across Brazil over the period 1980–2019

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Tomasella

    (Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais, CEMADEN)

  • Ana Paula M. A. Cunha

    (Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais, CEMADEN)

  • Paloma Angelina Simões

    (Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI))

  • Marcelo Zeri

    (Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais, CEMADEN)

Abstract

Drought indices are a numerical representation of drought conditions aimed to provide quantitative assessments of the magnitude, spatial extent, timing, and duration of drought events. Since the adverse effects of droughts vary according to the characteristics of the event, the socioeconomic vulnerabilities, exposed communities or environments, there is a profusion of drought indicators to assess drought impacts in different sectors. In this study, we evaluated the performance of two drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index—SPI and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index—SPEI over Brazil derived from gridded meteorological information over the period 1980–2019. Firstly, we compared the gridded derived indices against the same indices derived from weather station data and available from a global dataset for time scales of 3, 6, 12, 24 months. Then we analyzed the spatio-temporal trends in SPI and SPEI time-series, which revealed statistically significant trends toward drier conditions across central Brazil for all time scales, though with more intensity for time scales of 12 months and larger. Trends were more significant in magnitude for SPEI than SPI, indicating an important role in the increase in evaporation, driven by increasingly higher temperatures. Finally, we demonstrated that climate signals are already having a disruptive effect on the country's energy security.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Tomasella & Ana Paula M. A. Cunha & Paloma Angelina Simões & Marcelo Zeri, 2023. "Assessment of trends, variability and impacts of droughts across Brazil over the period 1980–2019," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2173-2190, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:116:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05759-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05759-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. de Oliveira, Renan G. & Valle Júnior, Luiz Claudio G. & da Silva, Jonh Billy & Espíndola, Duani A.L.F. & Lopes, Rute D. & Nogueira, José S. & Curado, Leone F.A. & Rodrigues, Thiago R., 2021. "Temporal trend changes in reference evapotranspiration contrasting different land uses in southern Amazon basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    2. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 52-58, January.
    3. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Erratum: Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(2), pages 171-171, February.
    4. Martins, Minella Alves & Tomasella, Javier & Dias, Cássia Gabriele, 2019. "Maize yield under a changing climate in the Brazilian Northeast: Impacts and adaptation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 339-350.
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    Keywords

    Drought trends; SPI; SPEI; Impacts;
    All these keywords.

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