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On the Moments and the Distribution of the Cost of a Semi Markov Model for Healthcare Systems

Author

Listed:
  • Aleka A. Papadopoulou

    (Aristotle University of Thessaloniki)

  • George Tsaklidis

    (Aristotle University of Thessaloniki)

  • Sally McClean

    (University of Ulster)

  • Lalit Garg

    (University of Ulster)

Abstract

In this paper we extend our previous semi-Markov reward model which attached costs to duration in states, by including costs of making a transition from one state to another. Theoretical results concerning the moments and consequently the distribution of interval costs for every member and of the total cost per unit period at any time and also through time intervals are obtained and provided in analytic form for the semi Markov reward model with discounting. The results are applied to an open healthcare system. In the healthcare domain such transition costs allow us to evaluate the overall costs of therapy or clinical intervention where an operation or other treatment may be an option. This model can be used for strategic approaches to planning and evaluating long-term patient care. The results demonstrate the potential of the model to demonstrate differential costs of different therapeutic strategies and explore optimal solutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleka A. Papadopoulou & George Tsaklidis & Sally McClean & Lalit Garg, 2012. "On the Moments and the Distribution of the Cost of a Semi Markov Model for Healthcare Systems," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 717-737, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:metcap:v:14:y:2012:i:3:d:10.1007_s11009-011-9260-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11009-011-9260-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fredrik Stenberg & Raimondo Manca & Dmitrii Silvestrov, 2007. "An Algorithmic Approach to Discrete Time Non-homogeneous Backward Semi-Markov Reward Processes with an Application to Disability Insurance," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 497-519, December.
    2. L. Jianyong & Z. Xiaobo, 2004. "On Average Reward Semi-Markov Decision Processes with a General Multichain Structure," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 339-352, May.
    3. Aleka Papadopoulou & George Tsaklidis, 2007. "Some Reward Paths in Semi-Markov Models with Stochastic Selection of the Transition Probabilities," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 399-411, September.
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    Cited by:

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