IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/lifeda/v30y2024i4d10.1007_s10985-024-09635-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatiotemporal multilevel joint modeling of longitudinal and survival outcomes in end-stage kidney disease

Author

Listed:
  • Esra Kürüm

    (University of California)

  • Danh V. Nguyen

    (University of California Irvine)

  • Qi Qian

    (University of California)

  • Sudipto Banerjee

    (University of California)

  • Connie M. Rhee

    (University of California
    Nephrology Section, VA Greater Los Angeles Health Care System)

  • Damla Şentürk

    (University of California)

Abstract

Individuals with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) on dialysis experience high mortality and excessive burden of hospitalizations over time relative to comparable Medicare patient cohorts without kidney failure. A key interest in this population is to understand the time-dynamic effects of multilevel risk factors that contribute to the correlated outcomes of longitudinal hospitalization and mortality. For this we utilize multilevel data from the United States Renal Data System (USRDS), a national database that includes nearly all patients with ESKD, where repeated measurements/hospitalizations over time are nested in patients and patients are nested within (health service) regions across the contiguous U.S. We develop a novel spatiotemporal multilevel joint model (STM-JM) that accounts for the aforementioned hierarchical structure of the data while considering the spatiotemporal variations in both outcomes across regions. The proposed STM-JM includes time-varying effects of multilevel (patient- and region-level) risk factors on hospitalization trajectories and mortality and incorporates spatial correlations across the spatial regions via a multivariate conditional autoregressive correlation structure. Efficient estimation and inference are performed via a Bayesian framework, where multilevel varying coefficient functions are targeted via thin-plate splines. The finite sample performance of the proposed method is assessed through simulation studies. An application of the proposed method to the USRDS data highlights significant time-varying effects of patient- and region-level risk factors on hospitalization and mortality and identifies specific time periods on dialysis and spatial locations across the U.S. with elevated hospitalization and mortality risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Esra Kürüm & Danh V. Nguyen & Qi Qian & Sudipto Banerjee & Connie M. Rhee & Damla Şentürk, 2024. "Spatiotemporal multilevel joint modeling of longitudinal and survival outcomes in end-stage kidney disease," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 827-852, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:lifeda:v:30:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s10985-024-09635-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10985-024-09635-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10985-024-09635-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10985-024-09635-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Crainiceanu, Ciprian M. & Ruppert, David & Wand, Matthew P., 2005. "Bayesian Analysis for Penalized Spline Regression Using WinBUGS," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 14(i14).
    2. Sandra M. Mohammed & Damla Şentürk & Lorien S. Dalrymple & Danh V. Nguyen, 2012. "Measurement Error Case Series Models With Application to Infection-Cardiovascular Risk in Older Patients on Dialysis," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(500), pages 1310-1323, December.
    3. Qi Qian & Danh V. Nguyen & Esra Kürüm & Connie M. Rhee & Sudipto Banerjee & Yihao Li & Damla Şentürk, 2024. "Multivariate Varying Coefficient Spatiotemporal Model," Statistics in Biosciences, Springer;International Chinese Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 761-786, December.
    4. Dimitris Rizopoulos & Geert Verbeke & Geert Molenberghs, 2008. "Shared parameter models under random effects misspecification," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(1), pages 63-74.
    5. Xiaoping Jin & Sudipto Banerjee & Bradley P. Carlin, 2007. "Order‐free co‐regionalized areal data models with application to multiple‐disease mapping," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(5), pages 817-838, November.
    6. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521780506, November.
    7. Jason P. Estes & Danh V. Nguyen & Lorien S. Dalrymple & Yi Mu & Damla Şentürk, 2014. "Cardiovascular event risk dynamics over time in older patients on dialysis: A generalized multiple-index varying coefficient model approach," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 751-761, September.
    8. Fushing Hsieh & Yi-Kuan Tseng & Jane-Ling Wang, 2006. "Joint Modeling of Survival and Longitudinal Data: Likelihood Approach Revisited," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 1037-1043, December.
    9. Krivobokova, Tatyana & Kneib, Thomas & Claeskens, Gerda, 2010. "Simultaneous Confidence Bands for Penalized Spline Estimators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 852-863.
    10. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    11. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785167, November.
    12. Jason P. Estes & Danh V. Nguyen & Yanjun Chen & Lorien S. Dalrymple & Connie M. Rhee & Kamyar Kalantar‐Zadeh & Damla Şentürk, 2018. "Time‐dynamic profiling with application to hospital readmission among patients on dialysis," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 1383-1394, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qi Qian & Danh V. Nguyen & Esra Kürüm & Connie M. Rhee & Sudipto Banerjee & Yihao Li & Damla Şentürk, 2024. "Multivariate Varying Coefficient Spatiotemporal Model," Statistics in Biosciences, Springer;International Chinese Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 761-786, December.
    2. Julie Vercelloni & M Julian Caley & Mohsen Kayal & Samantha Low-Choy & Kerrie Mengersen, 2014. "Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(11), pages 1-9, November.
    3. O. Gimenez & C. Crainiceanu & C. Barbraud & S. Jenouvrier & B. J. T. Morgan, 2006. "Semiparametric Regression in Capture–Recapture Modeling," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 691-698, September.
    4. Nadja Klein & Thomas Kneib & Stefan Lang, 2015. "Bayesian Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape for Zero-Inflated and Overdispersed Count Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(509), pages 405-419, March.
    5. Welham, S.J. & Thompson, R., 2009. "A note on bimodality in the log-likelihood function for penalized spline mixed models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 920-931, February.
    6. Jullion, Astrid & Lambert, Philippe, 2007. "Robust specification of the roughness penalty prior distribution in spatially adaptive Bayesian P-splines models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 2542-2558, February.
    7. K. De Brabanter & Y. Liu & C. Hua, 2016. "Convergence rates for uniform confidence intervals based on local polynomial regression estimators," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 31-48, March.
    8. Peter Pütz & Thomas Kneib, 2018. "A penalized spline estimator for fixed effects panel data models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 102(2), pages 145-166, April.
    9. Congdon, Peter, 2006. "A model for non-parametric spatially varying regression effects," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 422-445, January.
    10. Thaden, Hauke & Klein, Nadja & Kneib, Thomas, 2019. "Multivariate effect priors in bivariate semiparametric recursive Gaussian models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 51-66.
    11. Simon J. Bonner & Carl J. Schwarz, 2011. "Smoothing Population Size Estimates for Time-Stratified Mark–Recapture Experiments Using Bayesian P-Splines," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 1498-1507, December.
    12. Marc Aerts & Niel Hens & Jeffrey Simonoff, 2010. "Model selection in regression based on pre-smoothing," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1455-1472.
    13. Bellio, Ruggero & Grassetti, Luca, 2011. "Semiparametric stochastic frontier models for clustered data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 71-83, January.
    14. repec:plo:pone00:0212565 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Nicole H. Augustin & Stefan Lang & Monica Musio & Klaus Von Wilpert, 2007. "A spatial model for the needle losses of pine‐trees in the forests of Baden‐Württemberg: an application of Bayesian structured additive regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 56(1), pages 29-50, January.
    16. Holland, Ashley D., 2017. "Penalized spline estimation in the partially linear model," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 211-235.
    17. Lin Zhang & Veerabhadran Baladandayuthapani & Hongxiao Zhu & Keith A. Baggerly & Tadeusz Majewski & Bogdan A. Czerniak & Jeffrey S. Morris, 2016. "Functional CAR Models for Large Spatially Correlated Functional Datasets," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(514), pages 772-786, April.
    18. Francesca Bruno & Fedele Greco & Massimo Ventrucci, 2016. "Non-parametric regression on compositional covariates using Bayesian P-splines," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 25(1), pages 75-88, March.
    19. F. S. Nathoo & C. B. Dean, 2008. "Spatial Multistate Transitional Models for Longitudinal Event Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 271-279, March.
    20. F. Y. Kuo & W. T. M. Dunsmuir & I. H. Sloan & M. P. Wand & R. S. Womersley, 2008. "Quasi-Monte Carlo for Highly Structured Generalised Response Models," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 239-275, June.
    21. Manuel Wiesenfarth & Tatyana Krivobokova & Stephan Klasen & Stefan Sperlich, 2012. "Direct Simultaneous Inference in Additive Models and Its Application to Model Undernutrition," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(500), pages 1286-1296, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:lifeda:v:30:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s10985-024-09635-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.