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Mixture survival trees for cancer risk classification

Author

Listed:
  • Beilin Jia

    (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

  • Donglin Zeng

    (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

  • Jason J. Z. Liao

    (Incyte Corporation)

  • Guanghan F. Liu

    (Merck & Co., Inc)

  • Xianming Tan

    (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

  • Guoqing Diao

    (The George Washington University)

  • Joseph G. Ibrahim

    (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

Abstract

In oncology studies, it is important to understand and characterize disease heterogeneity among patients so that patients can be classified into different risk groups and one can identify high-risk patients at the right time. This information can then be used to identify a more homogeneous patient population for developing precision medicine. In this paper, we propose a mixture survival tree approach for direct risk classification. We assume that the patients can be classified into a pre-specified number of risk groups, where each group has distinct survival profile. Our proposed tree-based methods are devised to estimate latent group membership using an EM algorithm. The observed data log-likelihood function is used as the splitting criterion in recursive partitioning. The finite sample performance is evaluated by extensive simulation studies and the proposed method is illustrated by a case study in breast cancer.

Suggested Citation

  • Beilin Jia & Donglin Zeng & Jason J. Z. Liao & Guanghan F. Liu & Xianming Tan & Guoqing Diao & Joseph G. Ibrahim, 2022. "Mixture survival trees for cancer risk classification," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 356-379, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:lifeda:v:28:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10985-022-09552-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10985-022-09552-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hoora Moradian & Denis Larocque & François Bellavance, 2017. "$$L_1$$ L 1 splitting rules in survival forests," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 671-691, October.
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    5. Juan Shen & Xuming He, 2015. "Inference for Subgroup Analysis With a Structured Logistic-Normal Mixture Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(509), pages 303-312, March.
    6. Martin G. Larson & Gregg E. Dinse, 1985. "A Mixture Model for the Regression Analysis of Competing Risks Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 34(3), pages 201-211, November.
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