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Norwegian cohort emigration


  • Tore Thonstad

    () (Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway)

  • Christian Riis

    () (Norwegian School of Management BI, Elias Smiths vei 15, N-1301 Sandvika, Norway)

  • Kåre Bævre

    () (Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway)


This paper introduces a counterfactual technique to estimate net emigration from Norwegian birth cohorts from 1846 to 1900. A main finding is that despite strong fluctuations in annual emigration, the percentage reduction of each cohort due to emigration was surprisingly stable for all cohorts from 1846 to 1886, with net emigration of about 30% for males and about 20% for females. Estimating an econometric model of annual male gross emigration by single years of age 15-60 in the period 1870-1914, we find that previous net emigration from a cohort reduces later gross emigration from the same cohort. The estimations also give some justification for attributing this to selectivity of emigration, in the sense that only a certain proportion of each cohort were potential migrants.

Suggested Citation

  • Tore Thonstad & Christian Riis & Kåre Bævre, 2001. "Norwegian cohort emigration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(3), pages 473-489.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:14:y:2001:i:3:p:473-489
    Note: Received: 1 October 1997/Accepted: 23 March 2000 received financial support from the Norwegian Research Council (grant 129803/730) which is gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: Christoph M. Schmidt.-->

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    Cited by:

    1. Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 735-754, September.
    2. Mamelund, Svenn-Erik, 2003. "Effects of the Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918-19 on Later Life Mortality of Norwegian Cohorts Born About 1900," Memorandum 29/2003, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    3. Nobles, Jenna & Brown, Ryan & Catalano, Ralph, 2010. "National independence, women's political participation, and life expectancy in Norway," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 70(9), pages 1350-1357, May.

    More about this item


    Migration · cohort analysis · Norwegian emigration;

    JEL classification:

    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers


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