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Endogenous fertility, mortality and growth


  • Keith Blackburn

    () (School of Economic Studies, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK)

  • Giam Pietro Cipriani

    () (School of Economic Studies, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK)


Economic and demographic outcomes are determined jointly in a choice-theoretic model of fertility, mortality and capital accumulation. There is an endogenous population of reproductive agents who belong to dynastic families of overlapping generations connected through altruism. In addition to choosing savings and births, parents may reduce (infant) deaths by incurring expenditures on health-care which is also provided by the government. A generalised production technology accounts for long-run endogenous growth with short-run transitional dynamics. The analysis yields testable time series and cross-section implications which accord with the empirical evidence on the relationship between demography and development.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith Blackburn & Giam Pietro Cipriani, 1998. "Endogenous fertility, mortality and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(4), pages 517-534.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:11:y:1998:i:4:p:517-534
    Note: Received: 22 April 1996 / Accepted: 2 April 1998

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chakraborty, Shankha & Papageorgiou, Chris & Pérez Sebastián, Fidel, 2010. "Diseases, infection dynamics, and development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 859-872, October.
    2. Javier Birchenall, 2007. "Escaping high mortality," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 351-387, December.
    3. Suri, Tavneet & Boozer, Michael A. & Ranis, Gustav & Stewart, Frances, 2011. "Paths to Success: The Relationship Between Human Development and Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 506-522, April.
    4. Strulik, Holger, 2008. "Geography, health, and the pace of demo-economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 61-75, April.
    5. Chakraborty, Shankha, 2004. "Endogenous lifetime and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 119-137, May.
    6. Manuel A.Gómez & Luis C.Currais, 2001. "Income variation, endogenous population growth and health subsidy," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 28(2 Year 20), pages 165-181, December.
    7. Holger Strulik, 2004. "Child mortality, child labour and economic development," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 547-568, July.
    8. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2002. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 340-375, June.
    9. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 580-601, June.
    10. Yeopil Yoon & Gabriel Talmain, "undated". "Endogenous Fertility, Endogenous Growth and Public Pension System: Should We Switch from a PAYG to a Fully-Funded System?," Discussion Papers 00/31, Department of Economics, University of York.
    11. Ricci, Francesco & Zachariadis, Marios, 2009. "Longevity and Education Externalities: A Macroeconomic Perspective," TSE Working Papers 09-009, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    12. Keith Blackburn & Rashmi Sarmah, 2008. "Corruption, development and demography," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 341-362, October.
    13. Leonid Azarnert, 2006. "Child mortality, fertility, and human capital accumulation," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 285-297, June.
    14. Dalton Conley & Gordon C. McCord & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2007. "Africa's Lagging Demographic Transition: Evidence from Exogenous Impacts of Malaria Ecology and Agricultural Technology," NBER Working Papers 12892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Michael Grimm, 2000. "Comportement familial, inégalités et croissance : Une revue de la littérature," Working Papers DT/2000/09, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    16. Osang, Thomas & Sarkar, Jayanta, 2005. "Endogenous Mortality, Human Capital and Endogenous Growth," Departmental Working Papers 0511, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    17. Michael Grimm, 2003. "Family and economic growth: A review," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 145-173.
    18. Manuel Gómez, 2001. "Subsidy policies in a fertility choice model," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 29(4), pages 438-449, December.
    19. Holger Strulik, 2005. "Geography, Health, and Demo-Economic Development," Discussion Papers 05-15, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.

    More about this item


    Fertility · mortality · growth;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models


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