IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ijsaem/v14y2023i6d10.1007_s13198-023-02083-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Design of XGBoost prediction model for financial operation fraud of listed companies

Author

Listed:
  • Yi Liu

    (Changsha Normal University)

Abstract

To resolve the issue of untimely discovery of fraud phenomena in the supervision process of listed companies’ financial fraud, this research studies the establishment of a financial operation fraud prediction model for companies based on XGBoost and introduces regularization items and column sampling to enhance the robustness. Meanwhile, the data processing strategy of the model is designed according to the characteristics of the fraud data of listed companies, and the gray samples in the data samples are eliminated. Finally, the research uses the financial fraud prediction test method to test the model. The results indicated that the AUC of the XGBoost model designed in the study was 0.91, which was the maximum value of AUC in the comparison model. And its prediction effect reached the greatest level. The XGBoost prediction model designed by the research had a KS value of 0.65 in the prediction, which was the best value among the comparison models. This value was within the range of the KS value of the ideal model and can well distinguish positive and negative samples. The XGBoost listed company financial operation fraud prediction model designed by the research can effectively and dynamically predict financial fraud, laying a foundation for the establishment of a comprehensive capital market supervision system.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi Liu, 2023. "Design of XGBoost prediction model for financial operation fraud of listed companies," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 14(6), pages 2354-2364, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:14:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1007_s13198-023-02083-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s13198-023-02083-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13198-023-02083-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13198-023-02083-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Jian & Wang, Jialong & Kong, Dongmin, 2020. "Employee treatment and corporate fraud," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 325-334.
    2. Dongmin Kong & Junyi Xiang & Jian Zhang & Yiyang Lu, 2019. "Politically connected independent directors and corporate fraud in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1347-1383, March.
    3. Lin Liao & Guanting Chen & Dengjin Zheng, 2019. "Corporate social responsibility and financial fraud: evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 59(5), pages 3133-3169, December.
    4. Niu, Geng & Yu, Li & Fan, Gang-Zhi & Zhang, Donghao, 2019. "Corporate fraud, risk avoidance, and housing investment in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 18-33.
    5. Xing Li & Jeong-Bon Kim & Haibin Wu & Yangxin Yu, 2021. "Corporate Social Responsibility and Financial Fraud: The Moderating Effects of Governance and Religiosity," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 557-576, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Yunyan & Wu, Shinong & Zhou, Yucheng & Huo, Di, 2023. "Gambling culture and corporate violations: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Nie, Yingzhi & Na, Yanhua & Chen, Peng, 2024. "Is it a matter of governance or judicial favoritism? Legal expertise at an executive level and its use in cases of corporate financial fraud," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    3. Adrian Gepp & Kuldeep Kumar & Sukanto Bhattacharya, 2021. "Lifting the numbers game: identifying key input variables and a best‐performing model to detect financial statement fraud," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4601-4638, September.
    4. Chen, Shihua & Chen, Yulin & Jebran, Khalil, 2023. "Beyond the glass ceiling: Informal gender-based status hierarchy and corporate misconduct," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    5. Tian, Junmin & Sun, Hui, 2023. "Corporate financialization, internal control and financial fraud," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    6. Rind, Asad Ali & Abbassi, Wajih & Allaya, Manel & Hammouda, Amira, 2022. "Local peers and firm misconduct: The role of sustainability and competition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    7. Su, Fei & Guan, Mengyao & Liu, Yujie & Liu, Jia, 2024. "ESG performance and corporate fraudulence: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    8. Feng He & Xin Huang & Guanchun Liu & Ziqiao Wang, 2024. "Does CSR Engagement Deter Corporate Misconduct? Quasi-natural Experimental Evidence from Firms Joining a Government-Initiated Social Program in China," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 193(3), pages 555-587, September.
    9. Wu, Fang & Cao, June & Zhang, Xiaosan, 2023. "Do non-executive employees matter in curbing corporate financial fraud?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    10. Liwei Shan & Albert Tsang & Xiaoxue Zhang, 2024. "Transporting Audit Quality Across Countries: Returnee CEOs and Audit Fees," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 192(4), pages 845-874, July.
    11. Wen, Chufu & Zhao, Xinyu & Xu, Longhao & Yin, Hua, 2023. "Military experience and household stock market participation: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    12. Shin, Jiyoung & Moon, Jon Jungbien & Kang, Jingoo, 2023. "Where does ESG pay? The role of national culture in moderating the relationship between ESG performance and financial performance," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(3).
    13. Ling Zhu & Dongmin Kong, 2023. "Corruption and privatization: Evidence from a natural experiment in China," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 217-239, January.
    14. Patrick Velte, 2023. "The link between corporate governance and corporate financial misconduct. A review of archival studies and implications for future research," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 353-411, February.
    15. Zhu, Minghao & Yeung, Andy C.L. & Zhou, Honggeng, 2021. "Diversify or concentrate: The impact of customer concentration on corporate social responsibility," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    16. Shouyu Yao & Zhuoqun Wang & Mengyue Sun & Jing Liao & Feiyang Cheng, 2020. "Top executives’ early‐life experience and financial disclosure quality: impact from the Great Chinese Famine," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(5), pages 4757-4793, December.
    17. Yike Yu & Danting Cao & Zuogong Wang & Zaijie Zhang, 2021. "Does the fellow‐villager relationship between the independent director and the chairman of the board can inhibit the major shareholder expropriation? Evidence from China," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1374-1393, September.
    18. Li, Guowen & Wang, Shuai & Feng, Yuyao, 2024. "Making differences work: Financial fraud detection based on multi-subject perceptions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    19. Wang, Yang & Ashton, John K. & Jaafar, Aziz, 2023. "Financial statement fraud, recidivism and punishment," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    20. Hasan, Mostafa Monzur & Wong, Jin Boon & Al Mamun, Mohammed Abdullah, 2022. "Oil shocks and corporate social responsibility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:14:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1007_s13198-023-02083-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.