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A novel toolbox for dropped object hit probability evaluation and orientation optimization of subsea lines

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  • Zhenhui Liu

    (Western Norway University of Applied Science)

  • Ajit Kumar Verma

    (Western Norway University of Applied Science)

Abstract

Traditionally, the ‘ring model’ proposed by DNV has been widely used for doing quantified risk assessment of subsea lines. A breadth interval of 10 m is normally used. No studies have been performed to investigate the sensitivity of the breadth interval influences, mainly due to the tedious calculation it may involve. In this paper, a simple and efficient toolbox built by Python language is presented. It is shown that the hit probability calculated by present toolbox has excellent agreement with the example cases. The toolbox is further used to do sensitivity studies. Two typical subsea line configurations are used. Benefiting from the toolbox’s efficiency on handling geometry operations, the convergence of the breadth interval in the ring model can be investigated for the first time. The hit probability starts to converge when the breadth interval is less than 5 m in the cases investigated. The normally used breadth interval (10 m) tends to give higher total hit probability. Additionally, it is shown that present framework can be used to find an optimized orientation of the subsea lines with regards to the minimized hit probability, which might be useful for the subsea field layout design.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhenhui Liu & Ajit Kumar Verma, 2022. "A novel toolbox for dropped object hit probability evaluation and orientation optimization of subsea lines," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(4), pages 1705-1713, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:13:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s13198-021-01527-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s13198-021-01527-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Berner, C. & Flage, R., 2016. "Strengthening quantitative risk assessments by systematic treatment of uncertain assumptions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 46-59.
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