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Stakeholder Values and Scientific Modeling in the Neuse River Watershed

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Borsuk

    (Duke University)

  • Robert Clemen

    (Duke University)

  • Lynn Maguire

    (Duke University)

  • Kenneth Reckhow

    (Duke University)

Abstract

In 1998, the North Carolina Legislature mandated a 30% reduction in the nitrogen loading in the Neuse River in an attempt to reduce undesirable environmental conditions in the lower river and estuary. Although sophisticated scientific models of the Neuse estuary exist, there is currently no study directly relating the nitrogen-reduction policy to the concerns of the estuarine system's stakeholders. Much of the difficulty lies in the fact that existing scientific models have biophysical outcome variables, such as dissolved oxygen, that are typically not directly meaningful to the public. In addition, stakeholders have concerns related to economics, modeling, implementation, and fairness that go beyond ecological outcomes. We describe a decision-analytic approach to modeling the Neuse River nutrient-management problem, focusing on linking scientific assessments to stakeholder objectives. The first step in the approach is elicitation and analysis of stakeholder concerns. The second step is construction of a probabilistic model that relates proposed management actions to attributes of interest to stakeholders. We discuss how the model can then be used by local decision makers as a tool for adaptive management of the Neuse River system. This discussion relates adaptive management to the notion of expected value of information and indicates a need for a comprehensive monitoring program to accompany implementation of the model. We conclude by acknowledging that a scientific model cannot appropriately address all the stakeholder concerns elicited, and we discuss how the remaining concerns may otherwise be considered in the policy process.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Borsuk & Robert Clemen & Lynn Maguire & Kenneth Reckhow, 2001. "Stakeholder Values and Scientific Modeling in the Neuse River Watershed," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 355-373, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:grdene:v:10:y:2001:i:4:d:10.1023_a:1011231801266
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1011231801266
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abramson, Bruce & Brown, John & Edwards, Ward & Murphy, Allan & Winkler, Robert L., 1996. "Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 57-71, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Amanda P. Rehr & Mitchell J. Small & Paul S. Fischbeck & Patricia Bradley & William S. Fisher, 2014. "The role of scientific studies in building consensus in environmental decision making: a coral reef example," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 60-87, March.
    2. Robin Gregory & Nathan Dieckmann & Ellen Peters & Lee Failing & Graham Long & Martin Tusler, 2012. "Deliberative Disjunction: Expert and Public Understanding of Outcome Uncertainty," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(12), pages 2071-2083, December.
    3. Olander, Lydia & Polasky, Stephen & Kagan, James S. & Johnston, Robert J. & Wainger, Lisa & Saah, David & Maguire, Lynn & Boyd, James & Yoskowitz, David, 2017. "So you want your research to be relevant? Building the bridge between ecosystem services research and practice," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 26(PA), pages 170-182.
    4. Ali Azarnivand & Mohammad Ebrahim Banihabib, 2017. "A Multi-level Strategic Group Decision Making for Understanding and Analysis of Sustainable Watershed Planning in Response to Environmental Perplexities," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 629-648, May.
    5. Lennart Sjöberg, 2003. "Attitudes and Risk Perceptions of Stakeholders in a Nuclear Waste Siting Issue," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 739-749, August.
    6. I. Linkov & F. K. Satterstrom & G. Kiker & T. P. Seager & T. Bridges & K. H. Gardner & S. H. Rogers & D. A. Belluck & A. Meyer, 2006. "Multicriteria Decision Analysis: A Comprehensive Decision Approach for Management of Contaminated Sediments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 61-78, February.
    7. Joon Sik Kim & Peter W. J. Batey & Yanting Fan & Sheng Zhong, 2021. "Embracing integrated watershed revitalization in Suzhou, China: learning from global case studies," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 565-595, June.
    8. Barton, D.N. & Saloranta, T. & Moe, S.J. & Eggestad, H.O. & Kuikka, S., 2008. "Bayesian belief networks as a meta-modelling tool in integrated river basin management -- Pros and cons in evaluating nutrient abatement decisions under uncertainty in a Norwegian river basin," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 91-104, May.
    9. Calder, Ryan S.D. & Shi, Congjie & Mason, Sara A. & Olander, Lydia P. & Borsuk, Mark E., 2019. "Forecasting ecosystem services to guide coastal wetland rehabilitation decisions," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    10. Colin Williams & Liping Fang, 2019. "A Value-Focused Multiple Participant-Multiple Criteria (MPMC) Decision Support Approach for Public Policy Formulation," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 99-126, February.
    11. Lenio Prado & Marcelo Fonseca & José V. Bernardes & Mateus G. Santos & Edson C. Bortoni & Guilherme S. Bastos, 2023. "Forecast of Operational Downtime of the Generating Units for Sediment Cleaning in the Water Intakes: A Case of the Jirau Hydropower Plant," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-20, September.
    12. Failing, L. & Gregory, R. & Harstone, M., 2007. "Integrating science and local knowledge in environmental risk management: A decision-focused approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 47-60, October.
    13. Jennifer Orme‐Zavaleta & Jane Jorgensen & Bruce D'Ambrosio & Eric Altendorf & Philippe A. Rossignol, 2006. "Discovering Spatio‐Temporal Models of the Spread of West Nile Virus," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(2), pages 413-422, April.
    14. Lynn A. Maguire, 2004. "What Can Decision Analysis Do for Invasive Species Management?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(4), pages 859-868, August.
    15. Borunda, Mónica & Jaramillo, O.A. & Reyes, Alberto & Ibargüengoytia, Pablo H., 2016. "Bayesian networks in renewable energy systems: A bibliographical survey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 32-45.
    16. M. A. Burgman & B. A. Wintle & C. A. Thompson & A. Moilanen & M. C. Runge & Yakov Ben‐Haim, 2010. "Reconciling Uncertain Costs and Benefits in Bayes Nets for Invasive Species Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 277-284, February.

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