IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v23y2021i7d10.1007_s10668-020-01063-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate-induced changing environment in semidry lands: a statistical-based simulation approach in Qarasou Sub-basin of Karkheh River Basin

Author

Listed:
  • Narges Zaredar

    (Islamic Azad University)

  • Seyed Ali Jozi

    (Islamic Azad University)

  • Nematollah Khorssani

    (Islamic Azad University)

  • Seyed Mahmoud Shariat

    (Islamic Azad University)

Abstract

The present study was carried out to track the changing pattern of climate change at a watershed scale as a risk for the function of land systems. For this, the changing trend of the variables, including maximum and minimum temperature, and precipitation was simulated for the next 20 years using LARS-WG Software, version 5.0. The fifth version of the LARS developed based on the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report includes a total number of 15 models, among which six models (Gfcm21, Hadcm3, Incm, Ipcm4, Mpeh, and Ncccsm) are run with all of the three scenarios SRA2, SRA1B, and SRB1. In order to select the most appropriate model to simulate climate change in the Qarasou Watershed all of the 6 GCM models run with three above-mentioned scenarios were selected, whose average monthly output was compared with the observed data to determine which of the small-scale GCM models has better performance in simulating the meteorological data. The IPCM model was recognized as the best GCM model, in terms of the minimum error to downscale the meteorological data of the watershed. Once the simulation process completed, the climate change trends of the watershed were generated for the different variables, separately. According to the results, rainfall could be the primary climatic driver behind the decreased water supply for agricultural fields. Drier springs and autumns in the coming decades would potentially result in the increasing frequency of spring droughts.

Suggested Citation

  • Narges Zaredar & Seyed Ali Jozi & Nematollah Khorssani & Seyed Mahmoud Shariat, 2021. "Climate-induced changing environment in semidry lands: a statistical-based simulation approach in Qarasou Sub-basin of Karkheh River Basin," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(7), pages 10416-10431, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:7:d:10.1007_s10668-020-01063-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01063-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-020-01063-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-020-01063-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khalidullin O H, 2018. "Water Circulation and Climate Change," JOJ Wildlife & Biodiversity, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 1(1), pages 1-3, November.
    2. Ahmadzadeh Araji, Hamidreza & Wayayok, Aimrun & Massah Bavani, Alireza & Amiri, Ebrahim & Abdullah, Ahmad Fikri & Daneshian, Jahanfar & Teh, C.B.S., 2018. "Impacts of climate change on soybean production under different treatments of field experiments considering the uncertainty of general circulation models," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 63-71.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Irmak, S. & Sandhu, R. & Kukal, M.S., 2022. "Multi-model projections of trade-offs between irrigated and rainfed maize yields under changing climate and future emission scenarios," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    2. Aida Mehrazar & Ali Reza Massah Bavani & Alireza Gohari & Mahmoud Mashal & Hadisseh Rahimikhoob, 2020. "Adaptation of Water Resources System to Water Scarcity and Climate Change in the Suburb Area of Megacities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(12), pages 3855-3877, September.
    3. Wan Amir Azlan Wan Haniff & Rahmah Ismail & Suzanna Mohamed Isa & Rozlinda Mohamed Fadzil & Syed Sagoff AlSagoff & Kartini Aboo Talib @ Khalid & Hakimi Hassan & Nurina Awanis Mohamed, 2020. "Childrens Toy Safety Standards in Malaysia and ASEAN: Towards Single Regional Regulation of Lead-Based Paints and Children Toys," International Journal of Asian Social Science, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(9), pages 483-495, September.
    4. Lucas Eduardo Oliveira Aparecido & Kamila Cunha Meneses & Pedro Antonio Lorençone & João Antonio Lorençone & Jose Reinaldo da Silva Cabral de Moraes & Glauco Souza Rolim, 2023. "Climate classification by Thornthwaite (1948) humidity index in future scenarios for Maranhão State, Brazil," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 855-878, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:7:d:10.1007_s10668-020-01063-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.