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Randomness in the Bedroom: There Is No Evidence for Fertility Control in Pre-Industrial England

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  • Gregory Clark

    (University of California, Davis
    London School of Economics
    Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))

  • Neil Cummins

    (London School of Economics
    Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))

Abstract

Overturning a generation of research, Cinnirella et al. Demography, 54, 413–436 (2017) found strong parity-dependent fertility control in pre-Industrial England 1540–1850. We show that their result is an unfortunate artifact of their statistical method, relying on mother fixed effects, which contradicts basic biological possibilities for fecundity. These impossible parity effects also appear with simulated fertility data that by design have no parity control. We conclude that estimating parity control using mother fixed effects is in no way feasible. We also show, using the Cambridge Group data that Cinnirella et al. used, that there is no sign of parity-dependent fertility control in English marriages before 1850.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins, 2019. "Randomness in the Bedroom: There Is No Evidence for Fertility Control in Pre-Industrial England," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1541-1555, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:56:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s13524-019-00786-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-019-00786-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Dribe & Francesco Scalone, 2010. "Detecting Deliberate Fertility Control in Pre-transitional Populations: Evidence from six German villages, 1766–1863 [Mise en évidence d’un contrôle volontaire des naissances dans des populations p," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 411-434, November.
    2. Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins, 2015. "Malthus to modernity: wealth, status, and fertility in England, 1500–1879," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 3-29, January.
    3. Francesco Cinnirella & Marc Klemp & Jacob Weisdorf, 2017. "Malthus in the Bedroom: Birth Spacing as Birth Control in Pre-Transition England," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(2), pages 413-436, April.
    4. Tommy Bengtsson & Martin Dribe, 2006. "Deliberate control in a natural fertility population: Southern Sweden, 1766–1864," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 43(4), pages 727-746, November.
    5. Neil Cummins, 2013. "Marital fertility and wealth during the fertility transition: rural F rance, 1750–1850," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 66(2), pages 449-476, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Cinnirella & Marc Klemp & Jacob Weisdorf, 2019. "Further Evidence of Within-Marriage Fertility Control in Pre-Transitional England," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1557-1572, August.
    2. Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins & Matthew Curtis, 2020. "Twins Support the Absence of Parity-Dependent Fertility Control in Pretransition Populations," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(4), pages 1571-1595, August.
    3. Hannaliis Jaadla & Ellen Potter & Sebastian Keibek & Romola Davenport, 2020. "Infant and child mortality by socio‐economic status in early nineteenth‐century England," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(4), pages 991-1022, November.

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