Determinants of climate change adaptation in public organizations: a meta-analysis

Public organizations play a critical role in leading, managing and governing climate adaptation as the impacts of climate change intensify. This study conducts a meta-analysis to identify and evaluate the determinants of climate adaptation in public organizations, synthesizing findings from 26 studies published between 2010 to 2023 across diverse contexts and disciplines. Our analysis reveals that risk perception and influence from other governments are the strongest predictors of climate adaptation. Factors with moderate effects relate to organizational capacity, including perceived adaptive capacity, organizational budget, income levels, population size and climate network affiliation. Coastal proximity and political orientation also demonstrate medium-sized effects. Importantly, while past hazard impact significantly promotes adaptation, past hazard exposure does not, highlighting that it is the experience of harm, rather than mere exposure, that catalyzes adaptation efforts. The effect sizes for higher-level adaptation policy, population density, and managerialism are not statistically significantly different from the null hypothesis (p >.05). Moreover, not all determinants were examined in the literature to an equal extent. Political and institutional factors—such as influence from other governments, higher-level adaptation policy, and public pressure—were particularly understudied. The scope of this meta-analysis is also limited, as 17 out of 43 eligible studies could not be included due to a lack of access to the necessary data. We discuss key theoretical and practical implications to inform future research and practices.