IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v178y2025i3d10.1007_s10584-024-03842-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The link between objective measures and subjective perceptions of extreme weather

Author

Listed:
  • Franziska Quoß

    (GESIS
    ETH)

Abstract

One potential driver of support for stricter climate policies is a shift in the political preferences of average citizens as they experience more frequent and severe extreme weather due to the accelerating impacts of climate change. However, research to date on the impact of personal experience of extreme weather on (political) attitudes has yielded mixed results. In this study, I argue that one reason for this inconclusiveness is that what average citizens perceive as “extreme weather” is not yet well understood. Combining individual-level Swiss survey data on subjective perceptions of extreme weather with fine-grained objective weather data, I show that, overall, there is only a very weak link between objective measures and subjective perceptions of extreme weather in Switzerland. This finding demonstrates that what laypeople perceive as extreme weather is not yet fully understood.

Suggested Citation

  • Franziska Quoß, 2025. "The link between objective measures and subjective perceptions of extreme weather," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(3), pages 1-19, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03842-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03842-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-024-03842-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-024-03842-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uttam Babu Shrestha & Asheshwor Man Shrestha & Suman Aryal & Sujata Shrestha & Madhu Sudan Gautam & Hemant Ojha, 2019. "Climate change in Nepal: a comprehensive analysis of instrumental data and people’s perceptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 315-334, June.
    2. Hubertus, Lena & Groth, Juliane & Teucher, Mike & Hermans, Kathleen, 2023. "Rainfall changes perceived by farmers and captured by meteorological data: Two sides to every story," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 1-15.
    3. Jennifer R. Marlon & Sander van der Linden & Peter D. Howe & Anthony Leiserowitz & S. H. Lucia Woo & Kenneth Broad, 2019. "Detecting local environmental change: the role of experience in shaping risk judgments about global warming," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(7), pages 936-950, July.
    4. Cooperman, Alicia Dailey, 2017. "Randomization Inference with Rainfall Data: Using Historical Weather Patterns for Variance Estimation," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 277-288, July.
    5. Hazlett, Chad & Mildenberger, Matto, 2020. "Wildfire Exposure Increases Pro-Environment Voting within Democratic but Not Republican Areas," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1359-1365, November.
    6. Egami, Naoki & Hartman, Erin, 2023. "Elements of External Validity: Framework, Design, and Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 117(3), pages 1070-1088, August.
    7. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea & Toby R. Ault & Carlos M. Carrillo & Robert G. Chambers & David B. Lobell, 2021. "Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(4), pages 306-312, April.
    8. Wanyun Shao, 2016. "Are actual weather and perceived weather the same? Understanding perceptions of local weather and their effects on risk perceptions of global warming," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 722-742, June.
    9. Aaron M. McCright & Riley E. Dunlap & Chenyang Xiao, 2014. "The impacts of temperature anomalies and political orientation on perceived winter warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1077-1081, December.
    10. Elke U. Weber, 2010. "What shapes perceptions of climate change?," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(3), pages 332-342, May.
    11. Stefan Brönnimann & Christof Appenzeller & Mischa Croci‐Maspoli & Jürg Fuhrer & Martin Grosjean & Roland Hohmann & Karin Ingold & Reto Knutti & Mark A. Liniger & Christoph C. Raible & Regine Röthlisbe, 2014. "Climate change in Switzerland: a review of physical, institutional, and political aspects," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(4), pages 461-481, July.
    12. Teresa A. Myers & Edward W. Maibach & Connie Roser-Renouf & Karen Akerlof & Anthony A. Leiserowitz, 2013. "The relationship between personal experience and belief in the reality of global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 343-347, April.
    13. Omar Bellprat & Virginie Guemas & Francisco Doblas-Reyes & Markus G. Donat, 2019. "Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, December.
    14. John McClure & Ilan Noy & Yoshi Kashima & Taciano L. Milfont, 2022. "Attributions for extreme weather events: science and the people," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-17, October.
    15. Lisa Zaval & Elizabeth A. Keenan & Eric J. Johnson & Elke U. Weber, 2014. "How warm days increase belief in global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(2), pages 143-147, February.
    16. Chad Zanocco & Philip Mote & June Flora & Hilary Boudet, 2024. "Comparing public and scientific extreme event attribution to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(5), pages 1-19, May.
    17. Darren Ruddell & Sharon Harlan & Susanne Grossman-Clarke & Gerardo Chowell, 2012. "Scales of perception: public awareness of regional and neighborhood climates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(3), pages 581-607, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guglielmo Zappalà, 2023. "Drought Exposure and Accuracy: Motivated Reasoning in Climate Change Beliefs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(3), pages 649-672, August.
    2. Guglielmo Zappalà, 2022. "Drought exposure and accuracy: Motivated reasoning in climate change beliefs," Working Papers 2022.02, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    3. Joseph P. Reser & Graham L. Bradley, 2020. "The nature, significance, and influence of perceived personal experience of climate change," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(5), September.
    4. repec:osf:osfxxx:9zadu_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Donovan, Christopher & Shrum, Trisha, 2025. "Extreme Weather Events: Perception, Pro-Environmental Behavior, and the Tools to Measure Them," OSF Preprints 9zadu, Center for Open Science.
    6. Peter D. Howe, 2018. "Perceptions of seasonal weather are linked to beliefs about global climate change: evidence from Norway," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(4), pages 467-480, June.
    7. Charles Adedayo Ogunbode & Yue Liu & Nicole Tausch, 2017. "The moderating role of political affiliation in the link between flooding experience and preparedness to reduce energy use," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 445-458, December.
    8. Lackner, Teresa & Fierro, Luca E. & Mellacher, Patrick, 2025. "Opinion dynamics meet agent-based climate economics: An integrated analysis of carbon taxation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    9. Matthew T. Ballew & Jennifer R. Marlon & Matthew H. Goldberg & Edward W. Maibach & Seth A. Rosenthal & Emily Aiken & Anthony Leiserowitz, 2022. "Changing minds about global warming: vicarious experience predicts self-reported opinion change in the USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-25, August.
    10. Peter Howe & Hilary Boudet & Anthony Leiserowitz & Edward Maibach, 2014. "Mapping the shadow of experience of extreme weather events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 381-389, November.
    11. Uji, Azusa & Song, Jaehyun & Dolšak, Nives & Prakash, Aseem, 2024. "Willingness to incur private costs for climate adaptation? Public support for undergrounding electricity transmission lines in California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    12. Jan Freihardt, 2024. "Perceptions of environmental changes among a climate-vulnerable population from Bangladesh," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(2), pages 1-22, February.
    13. Wanyun Shao & Kirby Goidel, 2016. "Seeing is Believing? An Examination of Perceptions of Local Weather Conditions and Climate Change Among Residents in the U.S. Gulf Coast," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(11), pages 2136-2157, November.
    14. Paul M. Lohmann & Andreas Kontoleon, 2023. "Do Flood and Heatwave Experiences Shape Climate Opinion? Causal Evidence from Flooding and Heatwaves in England and Wales," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 86(1), pages 263-304, October.
    15. Kaitlin T Raimi & Paul C Stern & Alexander Maki, 2017. "The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, January.
    16. Alistair Munro, 2020. "Using experimental manipulation of questionnaire design and a Kenyan panel to test for the reliability of reported perceptions of climate change and adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1081-1105, October.
    17. Antony Millner & Hélène Ollivier, 2016. "Beliefs, Politics, and Environmental Policy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(2), pages 226-244.
    18. Carley M. Eschliman & Emma Kuster & Joseph Ripberger & Adrienne M. Wootten, 2020. "Preparing to adapt: are public expectations in line with climate projections?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 851-871, November.
    19. Trisha R. Shrum, 2021. "The salience of future impacts and the willingness to pay for climate change mitigation: an experiment in intergenerational framing," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-20, March.
    20. Foroughi, Pouyan & Marcus, Alan & Nguyen, Vinh, 2024. "Mutual fund pollution experience and environmental voting," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    21. Amanda Kennard, 2021. "My Brother’s Keeper: Other-regarding preferences and concern for global climate change," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 345-376, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03842-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.