IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v166y2021i1d10.1007_s10584-021-03079-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What is the risk of overestimating emission reductions from forests – and what can be done about it?

Author

Listed:
  • Till Neeff

Abstract

A high risk of overestimating emission reductions would be detrimental to the credibility of forest mitigation. But high-quality information on uncertainties in measuring emissions from forests is hard to obtain because of frequent shortcomings in uncertainty analyses. This paper aims to gauge what precision is achievable by examining data from several contexts (including data from 18 countries that have proposed jurisdictional mitigation programmes to the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility Carbon Fund). Countries reported random uncertainties in measuring forest carbon density (mostly 5–15% of the mean at the 90% confidence level), forest areas and their changes (mostly 0–20% for forest loss and forest degradation and 10–40% for forest gain), and greenhouse gas emissions (mostly 10–30%). It follows that uncertainties may be substantial in estimating emission reductions from forests and land-use change, and that these uncertainties entail significant risks of overestimation. I propose discount factors (between 9 and 44%) to conservatively adjust emission reduction estimates and reduce the overestimation risk. The paper concludes by pointing out that uncertainties are much lower for aggregate emission reductions of several programmes than they are for individual programmes. Discounting individual programmes’ emission reductions could therefore lead to understating the mitigation contribution that forests deliver.

Suggested Citation

  • Till Neeff, 2021. "What is the risk of overestimating emission reductions from forests – and what can be done about it?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-19, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:166:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03079-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03079-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-021-03079-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-021-03079-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Watson, Charlene & Mourato, Susana & Milner-Gulland, E. J., 2013. "Uncertain emission reductions from forest conservation: REDD in the Bale mountains, Ethiopia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 54192, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Betha Lusiana & Meine Noordwijk & Feri Johana & Gamma Galudra & S. Suyanto & Georg Cadisch, 2014. "Implications of uncertainty and scale in carbon emission estimates on locally appropriate designs to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+)," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(6), pages 757-772, August.
    3. Daniel Plugge & Thomas Baldauf & Michael Köhl, 2013. "The global climate change mitigation strategy REDD: monitoring costs and uncertainties jeopardize economic benefits," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 247-259, July.
    4. Johanne Pelletier & Jonah Busch & Catherine Potvin, 2015. "Addressing uncertainty upstream or downstream of accounting for emissions reductions from deforestation and forest degradation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(4), pages 635-648, June.
    5. Giacomo Grassi & Sandro Federici & Frédéric Achard, 2013. "Implementing conservativeness in REDD+ is realistic and useful to address the most uncertain estimates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 269-275, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jichuan Sheng & Weihai Zhou & Alex De Sherbinin, 2018. "Uncertainty in Estimates, Incentives, and Emission Reductions in REDD+ Projects," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-21, July.
    2. Jichuan Sheng, 2017. "Effect of Uncertainties in Estimated Carbon Reduction from Deforestation and Forest Degradation on Required Incentive Payments in Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-14, September.
    3. Johanne Pelletier & Jonah Busch & Catherine Potvin, 2015. "Addressing uncertainty upstream or downstream of accounting for emissions reductions from deforestation and forest degradation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(4), pages 635-648, June.
    4. Robin Matthews & Meine Noordwijk & Eric Lambin & Patrick Meyfroidt & Joyeeta Gupta & Louis Verchot & Kristell Hergoualc’h & Edzo Veldkamp, 2014. "Implementing REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation): evidence on governance, evaluation and impacts from the REDD-ALERT project," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(6), pages 907-925, August.
    5. Ermias Aynekulu & Marta Suber & Meine van Noordwijk & Jacobo Arango & James M. Roshetko & Todd S. Rosenstock, 2020. "Carbon Storage Potential of Silvopastoral Systems of Colombia," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-12, September.
    6. Haurez, Barbara & Daïnou, Kasso & Vermeulen, Cédric & Kleinschroth, Fritz & Mortier, Frédéric & Gourlet-Fleury, Sylvie & Doucet, Jean-Louis, 2017. "A look at Intact Forest Landscapes (IFLs) and their relevance in Central African forest policy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 192-199.
    7. Wells, Geoff & Fisher, Janet A. & Porras, Ina & Staddon, Sam & Ryan, Casey, 2017. "Rethinking Monitoring in Smallholder Carbon Payments for Ecosystem Service Schemes: Devolve Monitoring, Understand Accuracy and Identify Co-benefits," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 115-127.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:166:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03079-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.