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Assessment of the Pacific decadal oscillation’s contribution to the occurrence of local torrential rainfall in north China

Author

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  • Lin Pei

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Science)

  • Jiangjiang Xia

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Zhongwei Yan

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Hui Yang

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

On 21–22 July 2012, torrential rains hit North China, with the daily precipitation record at Beijing station reaching 160.6 mm; this event is named the Beijing 7–21 case. This paper assesses the likelihood of the occurrence of local torrential rains, such as the Beijing 7–21 case, from the perspective of climate variability. In particular, the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is assessed. There were five extreme events, with daily precipitation records equal to or larger than 160.6 mm, at Beijing station during the period 1951–2012; all of these events happened during negative phases of the PDO. The present analysis indicates that precipitation events more extreme than the Beijing 7–21 case should happen more than once per decade during negative phases of the PDO, but only about once every four decades during positive PDO phases. The negative phase of the PDO is found to be associated with a much greater probability of daily records of southerly winds in North China during summer. Strong southerly summer monsoons are deemed favorable for increasing the occurrence of local extreme rainfall over North China.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin Pei & Jiangjiang Xia & Zhongwei Yan & Hui Yang, 2017. "Assessment of the Pacific decadal oscillation’s contribution to the occurrence of local torrential rainfall in north China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 391-403, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:144:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1610-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1610-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xuebin Zhang & Francis W. Zwiers & Gabriele C. Hegerl & F. Hugo Lambert & Nathan P. Gillett & Susan Solomon & Peter A. Stott & Toru Nozawa, 2007. "Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends," Nature, Nature, vol. 448(7152), pages 461-465, July.
    2. Pardeep Pall & Tolu Aina & Dáithí A. Stone & Peter A. Stott & Toru Nozawa & Arno G. J. Hilberts & Dag Lohmann & Myles R. Allen, 2011. "Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7334), pages 382-385, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zong-Liang Yang & Zhuguo Ma, 2017. "Foreword to the special issue: decadal scale drought in arid regions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 389-390, October.

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