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Evaluation of an ensemble of regional hydrological models in 12 large-scale river basins worldwide

Author

Listed:
  • Shaochun Huang

    (Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE))

  • Rohini Kumar

    (UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research)

  • Martina Flörke

    (University of Kassel)

  • Tao Yang

    (Hohai University)

  • Yeshewatesfa Hundecha

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute)

  • Philipp Kraft

    (Justus-Liebig-University Gießen)

  • Chao Gao

    (Anhui Normal University)

  • Alexander Gelfan

    (Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Stefan Liersch

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Anastasia Lobanova

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Michael Strauch

    (UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research)

  • Floris Ogtrop

    (The University of Sydney)

  • Julia Reinhardt

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Uwe Haberlandt

    (Leibniz University of Hannover)

  • Valentina Krysanova

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

Abstract

In regional climate impact studies, good performance of regional models under present/historical climate conditions is a prerequisite for reliable future projections. This study aims to investigate the overall performance of 9 hydrological models for 12 large-scale river basins worldwide driven by the reanalysis climate data from the Water and Global Change (WATCH) project. The results serve as the basis of the application of regional hydrological models for climate impact assessment within the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison project (ISI-MIP2). The simulated discharges by each individual hydrological model, as well as the ensemble mean and median series were compared against the observed discharges for the period 1971–2001. In addition to a visual comparison, 12 statistical criteria were selected to assess the fidelity of model simulations for monthly hydrograph, seasonal dynamics, flow duration curves, extreme floods and low flows. The results show that most regional hydrological models reproduce monthly discharge and seasonal dynamics successfully in all basins except the Darling in Australia. The moderate flow and high flows (0.02–0.1 flow exceedance probabilities) are also captured satisfactory in many cases according to the performance ratings defined in this study. In contrast, the simulation of low flow is problematic for most basins. Overall, the ensemble discharge statistics exhibited good agreement with the observed ones except for extremes in particular basins that need further scrutiny to improve representation of hydrological processes. The performances of both the conceptual and process-based models are comparable in all basins.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaochun Huang & Rohini Kumar & Martina Flörke & Tao Yang & Yeshewatesfa Hundecha & Philipp Kraft & Chao Gao & Alexander Gelfan & Stefan Liersch & Anastasia Lobanova & Michael Strauch & Floris Ogtrop , 2017. "Evaluation of an ensemble of regional hydrological models in 12 large-scale river basins worldwide," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 381-397, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1841-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1841-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Kay & A. Rudd & H. Davies & E. Kendon & R. Jones, 2015. "Use of very high resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling: baseline performance and future flood changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 193-208, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shanshan Wen & Buda Su & Yanjun Wang & Jianqing Zhai & Hemin Sun & Ziyan Chen & Jinlong Huang & Anqian Wang & Tong Jiang, 2020. "Comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models for climate change impact assessment in the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1207-1226, December.
    2. Shaochun Huang & Harsh Shah & Bibi S. Naz & Narayan Shrestha & Vimal Mishra & Prasad Daggupati & Uttam Ghimire & Tobias Vetter, 2020. "Impacts of hydrological model calibration on projected hydrological changes under climate change—a multi-model assessment in three large river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1143-1164, December.
    3. Alexander Gelfan & Andrey Kalugin & Inna Krylenko & Olga Nasonova & Yeugeniy Gusev & Evgeny Kovalev, 2020. "Does a successful comprehensive evaluation increase confidence in a hydrological model intended for climate impact assessment?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1165-1185, December.
    4. Zhao, Xiaohu & Huang, Guohe & Li, Yongping & Lu, Chen, 2023. "Responses of hydroelectricity generation to streamflow drought under climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    5. Mayara Maria Arruda Gomes & Lívia Fragoso Melo Verçosa & José Almir Cirilo, 2021. "Hydrologic models coupled with 2D hydrodynamic model for high-resolution urban flood simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(3), pages 3121-3157, September.
    6. Valentina Krysanova & Jamal Zaherpour & Iulii Didovets & Simon N. Gosling & Dieter Gerten & Naota Hanasaki & Hannes Müller Schmied & Yadu Pokhrel & Yusuke Satoh & Qiuhong Tang & Yoshihide Wada, 2020. "How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1353-1377, December.
    7. Georgy Ayzel, 2023. "Runoff for Russia (RFR v1.0): The Large-Sample Dataset of Simulated Runoff and Its Characteristics," Data, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-13, January.

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