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Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade

Author

Listed:
  • Friederike Otto
  • Suzanne Rosier
  • Myles Allen
  • Neil Massey
  • Cameron Rye
  • Jara Quintana

Abstract

The crucial question in the public debate of extreme events is increasingly whether and to what extent the event has been caused by anthropogenic warming. In this study we investigate this question using extreme summer precipitation events in England and Wales as an example for probabilistic event attribution using very large ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations within the weather@home.net project. This allows us to analyse the statistics of high precipitation events in England and Wales, a region with a high quality precipitation observational dataset. Validating the model simulations against observations shows a credible shape of the distribution of 5-day precipitation, and thus confidence in the results. While the risk of extreme July precipitation events has at least doubled due to anthropogenic climate change in the modelling framework, no significant changes can be detected for the other two summer months. This study thus highlights the challenges of probabilistic event attribution of complex weather events and identifies the need to further decompose atmospheric features responsible for an event to occur for quantitative attribution analysis. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Friederike Otto & Suzanne Rosier & Myles Allen & Neil Massey & Cameron Rye & Jara Quintana, 2015. "Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 77-91, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:132:y:2015:i:1:p:77-91
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1095-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Myles Allen, 2003. "Liability for climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6926), pages 891-892, February.
    2. Dim Coumou & Stefan Rahmstorf, 2012. "A decade of weather extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 491-496, July.
    3. Peter A. Stott & D. A. Stone & M. R. Allen, 2004. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7017), pages 610-614, December.
    4. Pardeep Pall & Tolu Aina & Dáithí A. Stone & Peter A. Stott & Toru Nozawa & Arno G. J. Hilberts & Dag Lohmann & Myles R. Allen, 2011. "Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7334), pages 382-385, February.
    5. Myles Allen, 1999. "Do-it-yourself climate prediction," Nature, Nature, vol. 401(6754), pages 642-642, October.
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