IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v133y2015i3p427-438.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate change, climate justice and the application of probabilistic event attribution to summer heat extremes in the California Central Valley

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Mera
  • Neil Massey
  • David Rupp
  • Philip Mote
  • Myles Allen
  • Peter Frumhoff

Abstract

Probabilistic event attribution (PEA) is an important tool for assessing the contribution of climate change to extreme weather events. Here, PEA is applied to explore the climate attribution of recent extreme heat events in California’s Central Valley. Heat waves have become progressively more severe due to increasing relative humidity and nighttime temperatures, which increases the health risks of exposed communities, especially Latino farmworkers and other socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. Using a superensemble of simulations with the Hadley Centre Regional Model (HadRM3P), we find that (1) simulations of the hottest summer days during the 2000s were twice as likely to occur using observed levels of greenhouse gases than in a counterfactual world without major human activities, suggesting a strong relationship between heat extremes and the increase in human emissions of greenhouse gases, (2) detrimental impacts of heat on public health-relevant variables, such as the number of days above 40 °C, can be quantified and attributed to human activities using PEA, and (3) PEA can serve as a tool for addressing climate justice concerns of populations within developed nations who are disproportionately exposed to climate risks. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Mera & Neil Massey & David Rupp & Philip Mote & Myles Allen & Peter Frumhoff, 2015. "Climate change, climate justice and the application of probabilistic event attribution to summer heat extremes in the California Central Valley," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 427-438, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:133:y:2015:i:3:p:427-438
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1474-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-015-1474-3
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-015-1474-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Myles Allen, 2003. "Liability for climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6926), pages 891-892, February.
    2. Richard Heede, 2014. "Tracing anthropogenic carbon dioxide and methane emissions to fossil fuel and cement producers, 1854–2010," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 229-241, January.
    3. Rachel James & Friederike Otto & Hannah Parker & Emily Boyd & Rosalind Cornforth & Daniel Mitchell & Myles Allen, 2014. "Characterizing loss and damage from climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 938-939, November.
    4. Allen Thompson & Friederike Otto, 2015. "Ethical and normative implications of weather event attribution for policy discussions concerning loss and damage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 439-451, December.
    5. Sebastian Sippel & F Otto, 2014. "Beyond climatological extremes - assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 381-398, August.
    6. Pardeep Pall & Tolu Aina & Dáithí A. Stone & Peter A. Stott & Toru Nozawa & Arno G. J. Hilberts & Dag Lohmann & Myles R. Allen, 2011. "Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7334), pages 382-385, February.
    7. Christian Huggel & Dáithí Stone & Maximilian Auffhammer & Gerrit Hansen, 2013. "Loss and damage attribution," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 694-696, August.
    8. Myles Allen, 1999. "Do-it-yourself climate prediction," Nature, Nature, vol. 401(6754), pages 642-642, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhongwei Liu & Jonathan M. Eden & Bastien Dieppois & Matthew Blackett, 2022. "A global view of observed changes in fire weather extremes: uncertainties and attribution to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Dominic Roser & Christian Huggel & Markus Ohndorf & Ivo Wallimann-Helmer, 2015. "Advancing the interdisciplinary dialogue on climate justice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 349-359, December.
    3. B. Ekwurzel & J. Boneham & M. W. Dalton & R. Heede & R. J. Mera & M. R. Allen & P. C. Frumhoff, 2017. "The rise in global atmospheric CO2, surface temperature, and sea level from emissions traced to major carbon producers," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(4), pages 579-590, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Greg Lusk, 2017. "The social utility of event attribution: liability, adaptation, and justice-based loss and damage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 201-212, July.
    2. Christian Huggel & Dáithí Stone & Hajo Eicken & Gerrit Hansen, 2015. "Potential and limitations of the attribution of climate change impacts for informing loss and damage discussions and policies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 453-467, December.
    3. Aglaé Jézéquel & Vivian Dépoues & Hélène Guillemot & Mélodie Trolliet & Jean-Paul Vanderlinden & Pascal Yiou, 2018. "Behind the veil of extreme event attribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 367-383, August.
    4. Friederike Otto & Emily Boyd & Richard Jones & Rosalind Cornforth & Rachel James & Hannah Parker & Myles Allen, 2015. "Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 531-543, October.
    5. Sebastian Sippel & F Otto, 2014. "Beyond climatological extremes - assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 381-398, August.
    6. Friederike Otto & Suzanne Rosier & Myles Allen & Neil Massey & Cameron Rye & Jara Quintana, 2015. "Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 77-91, September.
    7. Moazami, Amin & Nik, Vahid M. & Carlucci, Salvatore & Geving, Stig, 2019. "Impacts of future weather data typology on building energy performance – Investigating long-term patterns of climate change and extreme weather conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 696-720.
    8. -, 2018. "Climate Change in Central America: Potential Impacts and Public Policy Options," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México (Estudios e Investigaciones) 39150, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    9. John McClure & Ilan Noy & Yoshi Kashima & Taciano L. Milfont, 2022. "Attributions for extreme weather events: science and the people," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-17, October.
    10. Friederike E. L. Otto & Petra Minnerop & Emmanuel Raju & Luke J. Harrington & Rupert F. Stuart‐Smith & Emily Boyd & Rachel James & Richard Jones & Kristian C. Lauta, 2022. "Causality and the fate of climate litigation: The role of the social superstructure narrative," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(5), pages 736-750, November.
    11. David J. Frame & Suzanne M. Rosier & Ilan Noy & Luke J. Harrington & Trevor Carey-Smith & Sarah N. Sparrow & Dáithí A. Stone & Samuel M. Dean, 2020. "Climate change attribution and the economic costs of extreme weather events: a study on damages from extreme rainfall and drought," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 781-797, September.
    12. Christopher W. Callahan & Justin S. Mankin, 2022. "National attribution of historical climate damages," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-19, June.
    13. Connor P. Spreng & Benjamin K. Sovacool & Daniel Spreng, 2016. "All hands on deck: polycentric governance for climate change insurance," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 129-140, November.
    14. Geert Jan Oldenborgh & Karin Wiel & Sarah Kew & Sjoukje Philip & Friederike Otto & Robert Vautard & Andrew King & Fraser Lott & Julie Arrighi & Roop Singh & Maarten Aalst, 2021. "Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-27, May.
    15. Dáithí Stone & Maximilian Auffhammer & Mark Carey & Gerrit Hansen & Christian Huggel & Wolfgang Cramer & David Lobell & Ulf Molau & Andrew Solow & Lourdes Tibig & Gary Yohe, 2013. "The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 381-395, November.
    16. repec:ecr:col022:39150 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Emily Williams, 2020. "Attributing blame?—climate accountability and the uneven landscape of impacts, emissions, and finances," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 273-290, July.
    18. Serdeczny, Olivia & Waters, Eleanor & Chan, Sander, 2016. "Non-economic loss and damage in the context of climate change: understanding the challenges," IDOS Discussion Papers 3/2016, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    19. Allen Thompson & Friederike Otto, 2015. "Ethical and normative implications of weather event attribution for policy discussions concerning loss and damage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 439-451, December.
    20. Dominic Roser & Christian Huggel & Markus Ohndorf & Ivo Wallimann-Helmer, 2015. "Advancing the interdisciplinary dialogue on climate justice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 349-359, December.
    21. Islam, Moinul & Kotani, Koji & Managi, Shunsuke, 2016. "Climate perception and flood mitigation cooperation: A Bangladesh case study," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 117-133.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:133:y:2015:i:3:p:427-438. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.