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Integrated assessment of China’s agricultural vulnerability to climate change: a multi-indicator approach

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  • Yingchun Li
  • Wei Xiong
  • Wei Hu
  • Pam Berry
  • Hui Ju
  • Erda Lin
  • Wen Wang
  • Kuo Li
  • Jie Pan

Abstract

Assessment of agricultural vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective adaptation options and strategies for the future. While assessment approaches vary across sectors and countries, there is a need to devise an effective method to assess agricultural vulnerability and provide information to policy-makers and stakeholders so that they can take appropriate adaptation actions. Agricultural vulnerability is analyzed as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity using a multi-indicator approach. Spatial and temporal assessment is undertaken through constructing maps of agricultural vulnerability in China. The results indicate that using multiple indicators is very practical for assessing agricultural vulnerability and that agricultural vulnerability is already significant in Guizhou, Guangxi and Yunnan provinces in China and will become more serious in the 2040s. It was also found that adaptive capacity was generally underdeveloped in poor regions, such as Guizhou, Yunnan and Gansu. We recommend that policy-makers increase investment in improving irrigation infrastructure and provide more opportunities for the education of farmers and stakeholders together with developing the economy in vulnerable areas. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Yingchun Li & Wei Xiong & Wei Hu & Pam Berry & Hui Ju & Erda Lin & Wen Wang & Kuo Li & Jie Pan, 2015. "Integrated assessment of China’s agricultural vulnerability to climate change: a multi-indicator approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 355-366, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:128:y:2015:i:3:p:355-366
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1165-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Liu, Suxia & Mo, Xingguo & Lin, Zhonghui & Xu, Yueqing & Ji, Jinjun & Wen, Gang & Richey, Jeff, 2010. "Crop yield responses to climate change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(8), pages 1195-1209, August.
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    2. Chloe S. Fleming & Seann D. Regan & Amy Freitag & Heidi Burkart, 2023. "Indicators and participatory processes: a framework for assessing integrated climate vulnerability and risk as applied in Los Angeles County, California," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 2069-2095, February.
    3. Muhammad Ziaul Hoque & Shenghui Cui & Lilai Xu & Imranul Islam & Jianxiong Tang & Shengping Ding, 2019. "Assessing Agricultural Livelihood Vulnerability to Climate Change in Coastal Bangladesh," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-21, November.
    4. Hui Ju & Qin Liu & Yingchun Li & Xiaoxu Long & Zhongwei Liu & Erda Lin, 2020. "Multi-Stakeholder Efforts to Adapt to Climate Change in China’s Agricultural Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-16, September.
    5. Li, Yuheng & Gao, Guangya & Wen, Jiuyao & Zhao, Ning & Du, Guoming & Stanny, Monika, 2025. "The measurement of agricultural disaster vulnerability in China and implications for land-supported agricultural resilience building," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    6. Sasenarine Tomby & Jing Zhang, 2019. "Vulnerability assessment of Guyanese sugar to floods," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 179-193, May.
    7. Mingying Ma & Delin Huang & Syed Shoyeb Hossain, 2023. "Opportunities or Risks: Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Structure Adjustment in Ecologically Vulnerable Regions in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, April.

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