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Livelihood vulnerability assessment to climate variability and change using fuzzy cognitive mapping approach

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  • Pramod Singh
  • Abhishek Nair

Abstract

Existing studies in the context of assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change delineate, rather inadequately, interconnected interactions occurring within the climate-human-environment interaction space. Besides, studies documenting stakeholders’ perceptions regarding climate change induced vulnerabilities are limited in terms of providing indicators for decision-making. This paper aims at constructing a livelihood vulnerability index for climate variability and change capturing interconnected interactions based on peoples’ perceptions while providing indicators for evidence based decision-making. A semi-quantitative fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) approach has been deployed to capture peoples’ perceptions of climate induced perturbations and adaptations. This approach helps quantify stakeholders’ perspectives while capturing interconnected interactions in order to estimate livelihood vulnerability to climate variability and change of poor agro-pastoralists in the Bhilwara, a district in Western India. Combining the FCM approach with a sustainable livelihood framework warrants an understanding of assets sensitive to climate variability and change along with those serving as adaptive capacities. The findings of this study confirm that financial and natural assets are most susceptible to harm while organisational and financial assets provide resilience against climate variability and change. The results suggest that livelihood vulnerability of agro-pastoralists lie in the range of being ‘vulnerable’ to climate variability and change while varying across three seasons summer, winter, and rainfall. Copyright The Author(s) 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Pramod Singh & Abhishek Nair, 2014. "Livelihood vulnerability assessment to climate variability and change using fuzzy cognitive mapping approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 475-491, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:127:y:2014:i:3:p:475-491
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1275-0
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    2. Xu Zhao & Chen Chi & Xin Gao & Yuefang Duan & Weijun He, 2020. "Study on the Livelihood Vulnerability and Compensation Standard of Employees in Relocation Enterprises: A Case of Chemical Enterprises in the Yangtze River Basin," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-27, January.
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    5. Konstantinos Papageorgiou & Pramod K. Singh & Elpiniki Papageorgiou & Harpalsinh Chudasama & Dionysis Bochtis & George Stamoulis, 2019. "Fuzzy Cognitive Map-Based Sustainable Socio-Economic Development Planning for Rural Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, December.
    6. Pramod K Singh & Harpalsinh Chudasama, 2017. "Pathways for drought resilient livelihoods based on people’s perception," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 179-193, January.
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    8. Wang, Delu & Wan, Kaidi & Song, Xuefeng, 2018. "Coal miners’ livelihood vulnerability to economic shock: Multi-criteria assessment and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 301-314.
    9. Wang, Delu & Wan, Kaidi & Song, Xuefeng, 2020. "Understanding coal miners’ livelihood vulnerability to declining coal demand: Negative impact and coping strategies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    10. Azad, Md Javed & Pritchard, Bill, 2022. "Financial capital as a shaper of households' adaptive capabilities to flood risk in northern Bangladesh," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    11. Konstantinos Papageorgiou & Pramod K Singh & Elpiniki I Papageorgiou & Harpalsinh Chudasama & Dionysios Bochtis & George Stamoulis, 2020. "Participatory modelling for poverty alleviation using fuzzy cognitive maps and OWA learning aggregation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-28, June.
    12. Thinh An Nguyen & Bich Thi Nguyen & Hanh Ta & Nhung Thi Phuong Nguyen & Huong Thi Hoang & Quan Phung Nguyen & Luc Hens, 2021. "Livelihood vulnerability to climate change in the mountains of Northern Vietnam: comparing the Hmong and the Dzao ethnic minority populations," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13469-13489, September.
    13. Ha Thi Thuy Nong & Christopher Gan & Baiding Hu, 2022. "Livelihood vulnerability to climate change: a case of farm households in Northeast Vietnam," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(10), pages 12059-12078, October.
    14. Pramod K. Singh & Konstantinos Papageorgiou & Harpalsinh Chudasama & Elpiniki I. Papageorgiou, 2019. "Evaluating the Effectiveness of Climate Change Adaptations in the World’s Largest Mangrove Ecosystem," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-17, November.
    15. Yi Ge & Wen Dou & Ning Liu, 2017. "Planning Resilient and Sustainable Cities: Identifying and Targeting Social Vulnerability to Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-19, August.
    16. Moslem Savari & Mohammad Shokati Amghani, 2021. "Factors influencing farmers’ adaptation strategies in confronting the drought in Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 4949-4972, April.
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    18. Pramod K. Singh & Harpalsinh Chudasama, 2017. "Assessing impacts and community preparedness to cyclones: a fuzzy cognitive mapping approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 337-354, August.

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