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Changing climate extremes in the Northeast United States: observations and projections from CMIP5

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  • Jeanne Thibeault
  • Anji Seth

Abstract

Climate extremes indices are evaluated for the northeast United States and adjacent Canada (Northeast) using gridded observations and twenty-three CMIP5 coupled models. Previous results have demonstrated observed increases in warm and wet extremes and decreases in cold extremes, consistent with changes expected in a warming world. Here, a significant shift is found in the distribution of observed total annual precipitation over 1981-2010. In addition, significant positive trends are seen in all observed wet precipitation indices over 1951-2010. For the Northeast region, CMIP5 models project significant shifts in the distributions of most temperature and precipitation indices by 2041-2070. By the late century, the coldest (driest) future extremes are projected to be warmer (wetter) than the warmest (wettest) extremes at present. The multimodel interquartile range compares well with observations, providing a measure of confidence in the projections in this region. Spatial analysis suggests that the largest increases in heavy precipitation extremes are projected for northern, coastal, and mountainous areas. Results suggest that the projected increase in total annual precipitation is strongly influenced by increases in winter wet extremes. The largest decreases in cold extremes are projected for northern and interior portions of the Northeast, while the largest increases in summer warm extremes are projected for densely populated southern, central, and coastal areas. This study provides a regional analysis and verification of the latest generation of CMIP global models specifically for the Northeast, useful to stakeholders focused on understanding and adapting to climate change and its impacts in the region. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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  • Jeanne Thibeault & Anji Seth, 2014. "Changing climate extremes in the Northeast United States: observations and projections from CMIP5," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 273-287, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:127:y:2014:i:2:p:273-287
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1257-2
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    1. Katharine Hayhoe & Cameron Wake & Bruce Anderson & Xin-Zhong Liang & Edwin Maurer & Jinhong Zhu & James Bradbury & Art DeGaetano & Anne Stoner & Donald Wuebbles, 2008. "Regional climate change projections for the Northeast USA," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 425-436, June.
    2. Budong Qian & Sam Gameda & Xuebin Zhang & Reinder Jong, 2012. "Changing growing season observed in Canada," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 339-353, May.
    3. V. Kharin & F. Zwiers & X. Zhang & M. Wehner, 2013. "Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 345-357, July.
    4. P. Duffy & C. Tebaldi, 2012. "Increasing prevalence of extreme summer temperatures in the U.S," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(2), pages 487-495, March.
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    1. A. N. Hristov & A. T. Degaetano & C. A. Rotz & E. Hoberg & R. H. Skinner & T. Felix & H. Li & P. H. Patterson & G. Roth & M. Hall & T. L. Ott & L. H. Baumgard & W. Staniar & R. M. Hulet & C. J. Dell &, 2018. "Climate change effects on livestock in the Northeast US and strategies for adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 33-45, January.
    2. L Liu & Z. X. Xu, 2016. "Regionalization of precipitation and the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme precipitation in southwestern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 1195-1211, January.
    3. Schomberg, Harry H. & White, Kathryn E. & Thompson, Alondra I. & Bagley, Gwendolyn A. & Burke, Allen & Garst, Grace & Bybee-Finley, K. Ann & Mirsky, Steven B., 2023. "Interseeded cover crop mixtures influence soil water storage during the corn phase of corn-soybean-wheat no-till cropping systems," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    4. Christopher J. Picard & Jonathan M. Winter & Charlotte Cockburn & Janel Hanrahan & Natalie G. Teale & Patrick J. Clemins & Brian Beckage, 2023. "Twenty-first century increases in total and extreme precipitation across the Northeastern USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(6), pages 1-26, June.

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    Keywords

    Climate extremes; Northeast; CMIP5; ETCCDI; HadEX2;
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