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Impact of projected climate change on hydrologic regime of the Upper Paraguay River basin

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  • Juan Bravo
  • Walter Collischonn
  • Adriano Paz
  • Daniel Allasia
  • Federico Domecq

Abstract

We present an assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrologic regime of the 600,000 km 2 Upper Paraguay River basin, located in central South America based on predictions of 20 Atmospheric/Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). We considered two climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and two 30-years time intervals centered at 2030 and 2070. Projected temperature and precipitation anomalies estimated by the AOGCMs for the study site are spatially downscaled. Time series of projected temperature and precipitation were estimated using the delta change approach. These time series were used as input to a detailed coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model aiming to estimate projected streamflow in climate change scenarios at several control points in the basin. Results show that impacts on streamflow are highly dependent on the AOGCM used to obtain the climate predictions. Patterns of temperature increase persist over the entire year for almost all AOGCMs resulting in an increase in the evapotranspiration rate of the hydrological model. The precipitation anomalies show large dispersion, being projected as either an increase or decrease in precipitation rates. Based on these inputs, results from the coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model show nearly one half of projections as increasing river discharge, and other half as decreasing river discharge. If the mean or median of the predictions is considered, no discernible change in river discharge should be expected, despite the dispersion among results of the AOGCMs that reached +/−10 % in the short horizon and +/− 20 % in the long horizon, at several control points. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Bravo & Walter Collischonn & Adriano Paz & Daniel Allasia & Federico Domecq, 2014. "Impact of projected climate change on hydrologic regime of the Upper Paraguay River basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 27-41, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:127:y:2014:i:1:p:27-41
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0816-2
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    1. A. Kay & H. Davies & V. Bell & R. Jones, 2009. "Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 41-63, January.
    2. Myles R. Allen & William J. Ingram, 2002. "Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle," Nature, Nature, vol. 419(6903), pages 224-232, September.
    3. Hulme, Mike & Raper, Sarah CB & Wigley, Tom ML, 1995. "An integrated framework to address climate change (ESCAPE) and further developments of the global and regional climate modules (MAGICC)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4-5), pages 347-355.
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    1. Pablo Borges de Amorim & Pedro B. Chaffe, 2019. "Towards a comprehensive characterization of evidence in synthesis assessments: the climate change impacts on the Brazilian water resources," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 37-57, July.
    2. João Paulo Lyra Fialho Brêda & Rodrigo Cauduro Dias Paiva & Walter Collischon & Juan Martín Bravo & Vinicius Alencar Siqueira & Elisa Bolzan Steinke, 2020. "Climate change impacts on South American water balance from a continental-scale hydrological model driven by CMIP5 projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(4), pages 503-522, April.

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