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Projection of Future Extreme Precipitation and Flood Changes of the Jinsha River Basin in China Based on CMIP5 Climate Models

Author

Listed:
  • Zhe Yuan

    (Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Changjiang Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources of China; 430010 Wuhan, China)

  • Jijun Xu

    (Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Changjiang Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources of China; 430010 Wuhan, China)

  • Yongqiang Wang

    (Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Changjiang Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources of China; 430010 Wuhan, China)

Abstract

Projecting future changes in extreme flood is critical for risk management. This paper presented an analysis of the implications of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP5) climate models on the future flood in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB) in Southwest China, using the Xinanjiang (XAJ) hydrologic model. The bias-corrected and resampled results of the multimodel dataset came from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Relatively optimal general circulation models (GCMs) were selected with probability density functions (PDFs)-based assessment. These GCMs were coupled with the XAJ model to evaluate the impact of climate change on future extreme flood changes in the JRB. Two scenarios were chosen, namely: a midrange mitigation scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5) and a high scenario (RCP8.5). Results show that: (1) The XAJ model performed well in simulating daily discharge and was suitable for the study area, with E NS and R 2 higher than 0.8; (2) IPSL-CM5A-LR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM showed considerable skill in representing the observed PDFs of extreme precipitation. The average skill scores across the total area of the JRB were 0.41 to 0.66 and 0.53 to 0.67, respectively. Therefore, these two GCMs can be chosen to analyze the changes in extreme precipitation and flood in the future; (3) The average extreme precipitation under 20- and 50-year return period across the JRB were projected to increase by 1.0–33.7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during 2020 to 2050. The Upper basin is projected to experience the largest increase in extreme precipitation indices, possibly caused by a warmer climate. The extreme flood under 20- and 50-year return period will change by 0.8 to 23.8% and −6.2 to 28.2%, respectively, over this same future period. Most of scenarios projected an increase during the near future periods, implying the JRB would be likely to undergo more flooding in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhe Yuan & Jijun Xu & Yongqiang Wang, 2018. "Projection of Future Extreme Precipitation and Flood Changes of the Jinsha River Basin in China Based on CMIP5 Climate Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:15:y:2018:i:11:p:2491-:d:181372
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    Cited by:

    1. Zigeng Niu & Lan Feng & Xinxin Chen & Xiuping Yi, 2021. "Evaluation and Future Projection of Extreme Climate Events in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China Using Ensembled CMIP5 Models Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-26, June.
    2. Yu Qiu & Yuan Liu & Yang Liu & Yingzi Chen & Yu Li, 2019. "An Interval Two-Stage Stochastic Programming Model for Flood Resources Allocation under Ecological Benefits as a Constraint Combined with Ecological Compensation Concept," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-18, March.

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