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Impacts of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming on water availability and extreme hydrological events in Yiluo and Beijiang River catchments in China

Author

Listed:
  • Lüliu Liu

    (China Meteorological Administration)

  • Hongmei Xu

    (China Meteorological Administration)

  • Yong Wang

    (Chongqing Climate Center)

  • Tong Jiang

    (China Meteorological Administration
    Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology)

Abstract

In the discussion of climate impacts, 1.5 and 2 °C have become iconic values. This study examines the impacts of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming on water availability, runoff seasonality, and extreme monthly and daily runoff in two catchments, using the semi-distributed hydrological model Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning-D, based on a combination of five global climate models (GCMs) and four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Subsequently, quantitative assessments were made for projection uncertainties from GCMs and RCPs. The two catchments are the Yiluo River catchment (YLC) in northern China and the Beijiang River catchment (BJC) in southern China. The results indicate wetter flood seasons for YLC and warmer mean annual temperatures, drier springs, and more severe floods over long return periods (25 and 50 years) for both catchments. The change magnitude of most indicators is expected to be larger in YLC than in BJC. Mean annual temperatures in both catchments are expected to have smaller changes under the 1.5 °C scenario than under the 2.0 °C scenario. However, the change magnitude of the other hydrological variables is projected to be approximately equivalent for both catchments under both scenarios. Uncertainties of projected impacts from GCMs are generally larger than those from RCP scenarios, for both catchments and warming scenarios, with the exception of mean annual temperature of BJC. These findings indicate that effective measures are required to address increasing annual temperatures, more severe flood events (25- and 50-year return periods), and drier spring seasons in both catchments and wetter flood seasons in YLC.

Suggested Citation

  • Lüliu Liu & Hongmei Xu & Yong Wang & Tong Jiang, 2017. "Impacts of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming on water availability and extreme hydrological events in Yiluo and Beijiang River catchments in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 145-158, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:145:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2072-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2072-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Kay & H. Davies & V. Bell & R. Jones, 2009. "Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 41-63, January.
    2. Buda Su & Jinlong Huang & Xiaofan Zeng & Chao Gao & Tong Jiang, 2017. "Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the upper Yangtze River basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 533-546, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Worako, A. W. & Haile, Alemseged Tamiru & Taye, Meron Teferi, 2022. "Implication of bias correction on climate change impact projection of surface water resources in the Gidabo Sub-basin, southern Ethiopia," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 13(5):2070-.
    2. Jun Hou & Tianlin Qin & Shanshan Liu & Jianwei Wang & Biqiong Dong & Sheng Yan & Hanjiang Nie, 2021. "Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Values Based on Land Use/Cover Change in the Yiluo River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, June.
    3. Yinmao Zhao & Zhansheng Li & Siyu Cai & Hao Wang, 2020. "Characteristics of extreme precipitation and runoff in the Xijiang River Basin at global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 101(3), pages 669-688, April.

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