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Climate change impacts on wildfires in a Mediterranean environment

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  • Marco Turco
  • Maria-Carmen Llasat
  • Jost Hardenberg
  • Antonello Provenzale

Abstract

We analyse the observed climate-driven changes in summer wildfires and their future evolution in a typical Mediterranean environment (NE Spain). By analysing observed climate and fire data from 1970 to 2007, we estimate the response of fire number (NF) and burned area (BA) to climate trends, disentangling the drivers responsible for long-term and interannual changes by means of a parsimonious Multi Linear Regression model (MLR). In the last forty years, the observed NF trend was negative. Here we show that, if improvements in fire management were not taken into account, the warming climate forcing alone would have led to a positive trend in NF. On the other hand, for BA, higher fuel flammability is counterbalanced by the indirect climate effects on fuel structure (i.e. less favourable conditions for fine-fuel availability and fuel connectivity), leading to a slightly negative trend. Driving the fire model with A1B climate change scenarios based on a set of Regional Climate Models from the ENSEMBLES project indicates that increasing temperatures promote a positive trend in NF if no further improvements in fire management are introduced. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Turco & Maria-Carmen Llasat & Jost Hardenberg & Antonello Provenzale, 2014. "Climate change impacts on wildfires in a Mediterranean environment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 369-380, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:125:y:2014:i:3:p:369-380
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1183-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Meg A Krawchuk & Max A Moritz & Marc-André Parisien & Jeff Van Dorn & Katharine Hayhoe, 2009. "Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(4), pages 1-12, April.
    2. J. Bedia & S. Herrera & D. Martín & N. Koutsias & J. Gutiérrez, 2013. "Robust projections of Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean using statistical downscaling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 229-247, September.
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    1. Thibaut Fréjaville & Thomas Curt, 2015. "Spatiotemporal patterns of changes in fire regime and climate: defining the pyroclimates of south-eastern France (Mediterranean Basin)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 239-251, March.
    2. Jaime Martínez-Valderrama & María E. Sanjuán & Gabriel del Barrio & Emilio Guirado & Alberto Ruiz & Fernando T. Maestre, 2021. "Mediterranean Landscape Re-Greening at the Expense of South American Agricultural Expansion," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, February.
    3. Matthew R. Sloggy & Jordan F. Suter & Mani Rouhi Rad & Dale T. Manning & Chris Goemans, 2021. "Changing opinions on a changing climate: the effects of natural disasters on public perceptions of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-26, October.
    4. Vassiliki Kotroni & Constantinos Cartalis & Silas Michaelides & Julia Stoyanova & Fillipos Tymvios & Antonis Bezes & Theodoros Christoudias & Stavros Dafis & Christos Giannakopoulos & Theodore M. Gian, 2020. "DISARM Early Warning System for Wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-30, August.
    5. Bruno A. Aparício & João A. Santos & Teresa R. Freitas & Ana C. L. Sá & José M. C. Pereira & Paulo M. Fernandes, 2022. "Unravelling the effect of climate change on fire danger and fire behaviour in the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve of Meseta Ibérica (Portugal-Spain)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-20, July.
    6. Olga M. Lozano & Michele Salis & Alan A. Ager & Bachisio Arca & Fermin J. Alcasena & Antonio T. Monteiro & Mark A. Finney & Liliana Del Giudice & Enrico Scoccimarro & Donatella Spano, 2017. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(10), pages 1898-1916, October.
    7. Hatice Oncel Cekim & Coşkun Okan Güney & Özdemir Şentürk & Gamze Özel & Kürşad Özkan, 2021. "A novel approach for predicting burned forest area," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 2187-2201, January.
    8. Gabriele Vissio & Marco Turco & Antonello Provenzale, 2023. "Testing drought indicators for summer burned area prediction in Italy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 1125-1137, March.
    9. Jaime Martínez-Valderrama & Javier Ibáñez Puerta, 2023. "System Dynamics Tools to Study Mediterranean Rangeland’s Sustainability," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, January.

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