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Future projections of temperature-related climate change impacts on the railway network of Great Britain

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  • Erika Palin
  • Hazel Thornton
  • Camilla Mathison
  • Rachel McCarthy
  • Robin Clark
  • John Dora

Abstract

Great Britain’s main line railway network is known to experience various temperature-related impacts, e.g. track buckling and overhead power line sag at high ambient temperatures. Climate change could alter the frequency of occurrence of these impacts. We have therefore investigated the climate change impact on various temperature-related issues, identified during workshops with rail industry specialists, using a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) of the Met Office’s regional climate model (RCM), HadRM3. We have developed novel approaches to combine RCM data with railway industry knowledge, typically by identifying key meteorological thresholds of interest and analysing exceedance of these out to the 2040s. We performed a statistical analysis of the projected changes for each issue, via bootstrapping of the unperturbed PPE member. Although neither the PPE nor the bootstrapping analysis samples the full range of uncertainty in the projections, they nonetheless provide complementary perspectives on the suitability of the projections for use in decision-making. Our main findings include projected increases in the summertime occurrence of temperature conditions associated with (i) track buckling, (ii) overhead power line sag, (iii) exposure of outdoor workers to heat stress, and (iv) heat-related delays to track maintenance; and (v) projected decreases in the wintertime occurrence of temperatures conditions associated with freight train failure owing to brake problems. For (i), the statistical significance varied with track condition and location; for (ii) and (iii), with location; and for (iv) and (v), projected changes were significant across Great Britain. As well as assessing the changes in climate-related hazard, information about the vulnerability of the network to past temperature-related incidents has been summarised. Combining the hazard and vulnerability elements will eventually support a climate risk assessment for the industry. Copyright © Crown Copyright as represented by: Met Office 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Erika Palin & Hazel Thornton & Camilla Mathison & Rachel McCarthy & Robin Clark & John Dora, 2013. "Future projections of temperature-related climate change impacts on the railway network of Great Britain," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 71-93, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:120:y:2013:i:1:p:71-93
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0810-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boris Orlowsky & Sonia Seneviratne, 2012. "Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 669-696, February.
    2. Maria Frías & Roberto Mínguez & Jose Gutiérrez & Fernando Méndez, 2012. "Future regional projections of extreme temperatures in Europe: a nonstationary seasonal approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 371-392, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Helen M. Hanlon & Dan Bernie & Giulia Carigi & Jason A. Lowe, 2021. "Future changes to high impact weather in the UK," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-23, June.
    2. Chinowsky, Paul & Helman, Jacob & Gulati, Sahil & Neumann, James & Martinich, Jeremy, 2019. "Impacts of climate change on operation of the US rail network," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 183-191.
    3. Sedghi, Mahdieh & Kauppila, Osmo & Bergquist, Bjarne & Vanhatalo, Erik & Kulahci, Murat, 2021. "A taxonomy of railway track maintenance planning and scheduling: A review and research trends," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    4. A. H. S. Garmabaki & Adithya Thaduri & Stephen Famurewa & Uday Kumar, 2021. "Adapting Railway Maintenance to Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-27, December.
    5. Marinella Giunta, 2023. "Trends and Challenges in Railway Sustainability: The State of the Art regarding Measures, Strategies, and Assessment Tools," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-19, December.

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