IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/aodasc/v8y2021i1d10.1007_s40745-020-00256-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Refinements of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard Model: An Analysis of Crude Oil Price with Machine Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Indranil SenGupta

    (North Dakota State University)

  • William Nganje

    (North Dakota State University)

  • Erik Hanson

    (North Dakota State University)

Abstract

A commonly used stochastic model for derivative and commodity market analysis is the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BN–S) model. Though this model is very efficient and analytically tractable, it suffers from the absence of long range dependence and many other issues. For this paper, the analysis is restricted to crude oil price dynamics. A simple way of improving the BN–S model with the implementation of various machine learning algorithms is proposed. This refined BN–S model is more efficient and has fewer parameters than other models which are used in practice as improvements of the BN–S model. The procedure and the model show the application of data science for extracting a “deterministic component” out of processes that are usually considered to be completely stochastic. Empirical applications validate the efficacy of the proposed model for long range dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Indranil SenGupta & William Nganje & Erik Hanson, 2021. "Refinements of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard Model: An Analysis of Crude Oil Price with Machine Learning," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 39-55, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:aodasc:v:8:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s40745-020-00256-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s40745-020-00256-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40745-020-00256-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40745-020-00256-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fotios Pasiouras & Chrysovalantis Gaganis & Michael Doumpos, 2007. "A multicriteria discrimination approach for the credit rating of Asian banks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 351-367, July.
    2. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2001. "What Makes Investors Trade?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 589-616, April.
    3. Fred Espen Benth & Kenneth Hvistendahl Karlsen & Kristin Reikvam, 2003. "Merton's portfolio optimization problem in a Black and Scholes market with non‐Gaussian stochastic volatility of Ornstein‐Uhlenbeck type," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 215-244, April.
    4. Kedar Kulkarni & Tarun Sabarwal, 2007. "To what extent are investment bank-differentiating factors relevant for firms floating moderate-sized IPOs?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 297-327, July.
    5. Zhao, Yang & Li, Jianping & Yu, Lean, 2017. "A deep learning ensemble approach for crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 9-16.
    6. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2007. "Are the crude oil markets becoming weakly efficient over time? A test for time-varying long-range dependence in prices and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 28-36, January.
    7. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Non‐Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck‐based models and some of their uses in financial economics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(2), pages 167-241.
    8. Bernard, Vl & Thomas, Jk, 1989. "Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift - Delayed Price Response Or Risk Premium," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27, pages 1-36.
    9. Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "Time-varying long range dependence in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 318-327.
    10. Michael Roberts & Indranil SenGupta, 2020. "Infinitesimal generators for two-dimensional Lévy process-driven hypothesis testing," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 121-139, March.
    11. Elisa Nicolato & Emmanouil Venardos, 2003. "Option Pricing in Stochastic Volatility Models of the Ornstein‐Uhlenbeck type," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 445-466, October.
    12. Indranil Sengupta, 2016. "Generalized Bn–S Stochastic Volatility Model For Option Pricing," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(02), pages 1-23, March.
    13. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    14. Li, Xuerong & Shang, Wei & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Text-based crude oil price forecasting: A deep learning approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1548-1560.
    15. Aziz Issaka & Indranil SenGupta, 2017. "Analysis of variance based instruments for Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type models: swap and price index," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 401-434, November.
    16. Semere Habtemicael & Musie Ghebremichael & Indranil SenGupta, 2019. "Volatility and Variance Swap Using Superposition of the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard type Lévy Processes," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 81(1), pages 75-92, June.
    17. Giliola Frey & Matteo Manera & Anil Markandya & Elisa Scarpa, 2009. "Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting: A Critical Survey," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(01), pages 29-44, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aidin Zehtab-Salmasi & Ali-Reza Feizi-Derakhshi & Narjes Nikzad-Khasmakhi & Meysam Asgari-Chenaghlu & Saeideh Nabipour, 2023. "Multimodal Price Prediction," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 619-635, June.
    2. Arai, Takuji & Imai, Yuto, 2024. "Monte Carlo simulation for Barndorff–Nielsen and Shephard model under change of measure," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 223-234.
    3. Humayra Shoshi & Indranil SenGupta, 2020. "Hedging and machine learning driven crude oil data analysis using a refined Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model," Papers 2004.14862, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    4. Michael Roberts & Indranil SenGupta, 2020. "Sequential hypothesis testing in machine learning, and crude oil price jump size detection," Papers 2004.08889, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    5. Shantanu Awasthi & Indranil SenGupta, 2020. "First exit-time analysis for an approximate Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model with stationary self-decomposable variance process," Papers 2006.07167, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    6. Shubham Ekapure & Nuruddin Jiruwala & Sohan Patnaik & Indranil SenGupta, 2021. "A data-science-driven short-term analysis of Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft stocks," Papers 2107.14695, arXiv.org.
    7. Xianfei Hui & Baiqing Sun & Indranil SenGupta & Yan Zhou & Hui Jiang, 2022. "Stochastic volatility modeling of high-frequency CSI 300 index and dynamic jump prediction driven by machine learning," Papers 2204.02891, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    8. Michael Roberts & Indranil SenGupta, 2020. "Infinitesimal generators for two-dimensional Lévy process-driven hypothesis testing," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 121-139, March.
    9. Akshit Kurani & Pavan Doshi & Aarya Vakharia & Manan Shah, 2023. "A Comprehensive Comparative Study of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) on Stock Forecasting," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 183-208, February.
    10. Xianfei Hui & Baiqing Sun & Hui Jiang & Indranil SenGupta, 2021. "Analysis of stock index with a generalized BN-S model: an approach based on machine learning and fuzzy parameters," Papers 2101.08984, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    11. Xianfei Hui & Baiqing Sun & Hui Jiang & Yan Zhou, 2022. "Modeling dynamic volatility under uncertain environment with fuzziness and randomness," Papers 2204.12657, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    12. Manoj Verma & Harish Kumar Ghritlahre & Ghrithanchi Chandrakar, 2023. "Wind Speed Prediction of Central Region of Chhattisgarh (India) Using Artificial Neural Network and Multiple Linear Regression Technique: A Comparative Study," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 851-873, August.
    13. Michael Roberts & Indranil SenGupta, 2019. "Infinitesimal generators for two-dimensional L\'evy process-driven hypothesis testing," Papers 1911.08412, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Roberts & Indranil SenGupta, 2020. "Sequential hypothesis testing in machine learning, and crude oil price jump size detection," Papers 2004.08889, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    2. Humayra Shoshi & Indranil SenGupta, 2020. "Hedging and machine learning driven crude oil data analysis using a refined Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model," Papers 2004.14862, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    3. Shantanu Awasthi & Indranil SenGupta, 2020. "First exit-time analysis for an approximate Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model with stationary self-decomposable variance process," Papers 2006.07167, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    4. Xianfei Hui & Baiqing Sun & Hui Jiang & Indranil SenGupta, 2021. "Analysis of stock index with a generalized BN-S model: an approach based on machine learning and fuzzy parameters," Papers 2101.08984, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    5. Nicholas Salmon & Indranil SenGupta, 2021. "Fractional Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model: applications in variance and volatility swaps, and hedging," Papers 2105.02325, arXiv.org.
    6. Indranil Sengupta, 2016. "Generalized Bn–S Stochastic Volatility Model For Option Pricing," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(02), pages 1-23, March.
    7. Semere Habtemicael & Musie Ghebremichael & Indranil SenGupta, 2019. "Volatility and Variance Swap Using Superposition of the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard type Lévy Processes," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 81(1), pages 75-92, June.
    8. Piotr Szczepocki, 2020. "Application of iterated filtering to stochastic volatility models based on non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 21(2), pages 173-187, June.
    9. Karl Friedrich Hofmann & Thorsten Schulz, 2016. "A General Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Stochastic Volatility Model With Lévy Jumps," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(08), pages 1-23, December.
    10. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    11. Lancelot F. James, 2005. "Analysis of a Class of Likelihood Based Continuous Time Stochastic Volatility Models including Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Models in Financial Economics," Papers math/0503055, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2005.
    12. Semere Habtemicael & Indranil SenGupta, 2016. "Pricing variance and volatility swaps for Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard process driven financial markets," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(04), pages 1-35, December.
    13. Jiangwei Liu & Xiaohong Huang, 2021. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Using Event Extraction," Papers 2111.09111, arXiv.org.
    14. Semere Habtemicael & Indranil Sengupta, 2016. "Pricing Covariance Swaps For Barndorff–Nielsen And Shephard Process Driven Financial Markets," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(03), pages 1-32, September.
    15. Herrera, Gabriel Paes & Constantino, Michel & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Pistori, Hemerson & Su, Jen-Je & Naranpanawa, Athula, 2019. "Long-term forecast of energy commodities price using machine learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 214-221.
    16. Carl Lindberg, 2008. "The estimation of the Barndorff‐Nielsen and Shephard model from daily data based on measures of trading intensity," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(4), pages 277-289, July.
    17. Shubham Ekapure & Nuruddin Jiruwala & Sohan Patnaik & Indranil SenGupta, 2021. "A data-science-driven short-term analysis of Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft stocks," Papers 2107.14695, arXiv.org.
    18. Nicholas Salmon & Indranil SenGupta, 2021. "Fractional Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model: applications in variance and volatility swaps, and hedging," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 529-558, December.
    19. Griffin, J.E. & Steel, M.F.J., 2006. "Inference with non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes for stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 605-644, October.
    20. Szczepocki Piotr, 2020. "Application of iterated filtering to stochastic volatility models based on non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 21(2), pages 173-187, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:aodasc:v:8:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s40745-020-00256-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.