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People vs. Malthus: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation, and Armed Conflict Revisited

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  • Henrik Urdal

    (Centre for the Study of Civil War, International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO), henriku@prio.no)

Abstract

Demographic and environmental factors have claimed a dominant position in the post-Cold War security discourse. According to the neo-Malthusian conflict scenario, population pressure on natural renewable resources makes societies more prone to low-intensity civil war. On the contrary, resource-optimists concede that agricultural land scarcity caused by high population density may be a driving factor behind economic development, thus causing peace in a long-term perspective. These notions are tested in a quantitative cross-national time-series study covering the 1950-2000 period. The results do not provide strong support for either perspective. Countries experiencing high rates of population growth, high rates of urbanization, or large refugee populations do not face greater risks of internal armed conflict. There is some indication that scarcity of potential cropland may have a pacifying effect. However, where land scarcity combines with high rates of population growth, the risk of armed conflict increases somewhat. This trend is particularly marked for the 1970s, the decade that saw the great rise in neo-Malthusian concerns. Claims that the world has entered a ‘new age of insecurity’ after the end of the Cold War, where demographic and environmental factors threaten security and state stability, appear to be unfounded. Overall, the robustness of the empirical support for both paradigms is low. A strong emphasis on security as a macro rationale for reducing global population growth thus seems unwarranted.

Suggested Citation

  • Henrik Urdal, 2005. "People vs. Malthus: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation, and Armed Conflict Revisited," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 42(4), pages 417-434, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:42:y:2005:i:4:p:417-434
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    Cited by:

    1. Ore Koren & Benjamin E. Bagozzi, 2016. "From global to local, food insecurity is associated with contemporary armed conflicts," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(5), pages 999-1010, October.
    2. Yuri M. Zhukov, 2014. "Theory of Indiscriminate Violence," Working Paper 365551, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    3. Wagschal Uwe & Metz Thomas, 2016. "A Demographic Peace? Youth Bulges and Other Population-Related Causes of Domestic Conflict," Statistics, Politics and Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1-2), pages 55-97, December.
    4. Elena Kopnova & Lilia Rodionova, 2017. "An Analysis of the Economic Determinants of Food Security in North Africa," HSE Working papers WP BRP 166/EC/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Mehdi Shiva & Andrzej Kwiatkowski, 2014. "Temper and Temperature: The Missing Link of Climate on Armed Conflicts," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 282, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    6. Allouche, Jeremy, 2011. "The sustainability and resilience of global water and food systems: Political analysis of the interplay between security, resource scarcity, political systems and global trade," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 3-8.
    7. Shiva, Mehdi & Kwiatkowski, Andrzej, 2014. "Temper and Temperature: The Missing Link of Climate on Armed Conflicts," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-30, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Olivia D'Aoust, 2015. "Post-war economics: micro-level evidence from the African Great Lakes Region," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/209098, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

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