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Cognition, conflict, and doctrine: How groupthink fails on a Clausewitz landscape

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  • Rodrick Wallace

Abstract

Real-time conflict takes place on Clausewitz landscapes most notably marked by fog-of-war and frictional limits, uncertainties, and misperceptions. Imposition of such factors on an opponent is, in fact, a standard tactic of confrontation, from courts of law to commerce, from political campaigns to the battlefield. Time-constrained optimization models of institutional effectiveness, based on ‘anytime algorithm’ methods, suggest that the burden of doctrinal groupthink may become synergistic with fog-of-war and friction to greatly compromise the ability of an institution to respond to shadow price demands imposed by a contending agent or environment. A different, and more direct, approach via a ‘simple’ stochastic model, provides similar insight.

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  • Rodrick Wallace, 2020. "Cognition, conflict, and doctrine: How groupthink fails on a Clausewitz landscape," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 17(2), pages 137-142, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joudef:v:17:y:2020:i:2:p:137-142
    DOI: 10.1177/1548512919843642
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hanqing Jin & Zuo Quan Xu & Xun Yu Zhou, 2008. "A Convex Stochastic Optimization Problem Arising From Portfolio Selection," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 171-183, January.
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