IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v68y2024i2-3p269-293.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Natural Experiments of the Rally 'Round the Flag Effects Using Worldwide Surveys

Author

Listed:
  • TaeJun Seo
  • Yusaku Horiuchi

Abstract

The “rally 'round the flag†effect—a short-term boost in a political leader’s popularity during an interstate political dispute—was first proposed by Mueller (1970) more than half a century ago. However, there is no scholarly consensus on its empirical validity and the circumstances under which the effect becomes most prominent. In this paper, based on a natural experimental design, we analyze large-scale worldwide surveys of 34,118 responses and causally identify the effects of 46 militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) on the approval ratings of political leaders in 27 countries. We find that MIDs, on average, decrease public support for national leaders. However, the public backlash could be attenuated depending on theoretically relevant contexts. Our finding implies that political leaders cannot rely on MIDs for public support increases , as they are generally penalized for such decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • TaeJun Seo & Yusaku Horiuchi, 2024. "Natural Experiments of the Rally 'Round the Flag Effects Using Worldwide Surveys," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 68(2-3), pages 269-293, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:68:y:2024:i:2-3:p:269-293
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027231171310
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00220027231171310
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/00220027231171310?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Holman, Mirya R. & Merolla, Jennifer L. & Zechmeister, Elizabeth J., 2022. "The Curious Case of Theresa May and the Public That Did Not Rally: Gendered Reactions to Terrorist Attacks Can Cause Slumps Not Bumps," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 249-264, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jetter, Michael & Stockley, Kieran, 2023. "On the Empirical Validity of "Gendered Reactions to Terrorist Attacks Can Cause Slumps not Bumps" (Holman et al., 2022)," I4R Discussion Paper Series 41, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    2. Ignacio Lago & André Blais, 2022. "Floods, terrorist attacks and the covid-19 pandemic: How the (de)centralization of power affects the rally around the flag," Working Papers. Collection A: Public economics, governance and decentralization 2208, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.
    3. Holman, Mirya R. & Merolla, Jennifer L. & Zechmeister, Elizabeth J., 2023. "Response to "On the Empirical Validity of 'Gendered Reactions to Terrorist Attacks Can Cause Slumps not Bumps'"," I4R Discussion Paper Series 44, The Institute for Replication (I4R), revised 2023.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:68:y:2024:i:2-3:p:269-293. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.