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Inconstant Care: Public Attitudes Towards Force Protection and Civilian Casualties in the United States, United Kingdom, and Israel

Author

Listed:
  • Janina Dill
  • Scott D. Sagan
  • Benjamin Valentino

Abstract

The choice between protecting friendly soldiers or foreign civilians is a critical strategic dilemma faced in modern war. Prevailing theories suggest that casualties among both groups depress war support in Western democratic societies. Yet we know little about how ordinary citizens balance force protection and civilian casualty avoidance, and whether public opinion differs across Western democracies. Using survey experiments, we test three micro-foundations for what we call individuals’ “harm-transfer preferences:†self-interest, perception of soldiers’ consent to risk-taking, and nationalism. We find that respondents’ perception of soldiers’ consent and respondents’ nationalism explain individual-level variation in harm-transfer preferences. Moreover, Israeli citizens are significantly more likely than American or British citizens to prefer protecting friendly forces over avoiding foreign civilian casualties. This is associated with higher levels of nationalism and the perceptions that soldiers do not consent to risking their lives in Israel compared to the United States and the United Kingdom.

Suggested Citation

  • Janina Dill & Scott D. Sagan & Benjamin Valentino, 2023. "Inconstant Care: Public Attitudes Towards Force Protection and Civilian Casualties in the United States, United Kingdom, and Israel," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(4), pages 587-616, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:67:y:2023:i:4:p:587-616
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027221119768
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Davidov, Eldad, 2009. "Measurement Equivalence of Nationalism and Constructive Patriotism in the ISSP: 34 Countries in a Comparative Perspective," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 64-82, January.
    2. Tomz, Michael & Weeks, Jessica L.P. & Yarhi-Milo, Keren, 2020. "Public Opinion and Decisions About Military Force in Democracies," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 119-143, January.
    3. Gartner, Scott Sigmund, 2008. "The Multiple Effects of Casualties on Public Support for War: An Experimental Approach," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(1), pages 95-106, February.
    4. Lyall, Jason & Blair, Graeme & Imai, Kosuke, 2013. "Explaining Support for Combatants during Wartime: A Survey Experiment in Afghanistan," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 679-705, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lukas Rudolph & Fabian Haggerty & Paul W. Thurner, 2026. "Examining public support for Ukraine’s defense against autocratic aggression," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 17(1), pages 1-20, December.
    2. Ronan Tse-min Fu & Weiwen Yin & Enze Han, 2025. "The human cost of war: An experimental study of Taiwanese attitudes towards war casualties," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(5), pages 559-577, September.
    3. Alon P. Kraitzman & Tom W. Etienne & Dolores Albarracin, 2025. "How civilian casualty information shapes support for US involvement in an ally country’s war effort," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, December.

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