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Even Generals Need Friends

Author

Listed:
  • Clayton Thyne
  • Jonathan Powell
  • Sarah Parrott
  • Emily VanMeter

Abstract

Signals from domestic and international actors have been shown to influence the likelihood of coups. Coups remain difficult to predict and consequently leave policy makers in a reactive stance, but little systematic work assesses how these reactions influence long-term outcomes. We examine how reactions from domestic and international actors influence the duration of coup-born regimes, arguing that negative reactions will shorten leadership duration. We further probe these relationships by considering how signaling consistency, Cold War dynamics, and precoup relationships condition the influence of reactions on leadership duration. Tests use events data to capture domestic and international reactions and newly coded information on leadership to capture leader duration. Results indicate that international responses have a profound influence on leadership tenure, especially those from strong actors. We find tentative support that state reactions have the strongest effect during the Cold War, while international organizations matter the most afterward.

Suggested Citation

  • Clayton Thyne & Jonathan Powell & Sarah Parrott & Emily VanMeter, 2018. "Even Generals Need Friends," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(7), pages 1406-1432, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:62:y:2018:i:7:p:1406-1432
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002716685611
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wintrobe,Ronald, 2000. "The Political Economy of Dictatorship," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521794497.
    2. Daniel S. Morey & Clayton L. Thyne & Sarah L. Hayden & Michael B. Senters, 2012. "Leader, Follower, or Spectator? The Role of President Obama in the Arab Spring Uprisings," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1185-1201, December.
    3. Giacomo Chiozza & H. E. Goemans, 2004. "International Conflict and the Tenure of Leaders: Is War Still Ex Post Inefficient?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(3), pages 604-619, July.
    4. Moravcsik, Andrew, 1997. "Taking Preferences Seriously: A Liberal Theory of International Politics," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(4), pages 513-553, October.
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