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Reciprocity, Triangularity, and Cooperation in the Middle East, 1979-97

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua S. Goldstein

    (School of International Service, American University, Washington, D.C.)

  • Jon C. Pevehouse

    (Department of Political Science, University of Wisconsin-Madison)

  • Deborah J. Gerner

    (Department of Political Science, University of Kansas, Lawrence)

  • Shibley Telhami

    (Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development, University of Maryland at College Park)

Abstract

Does bilateral reciprocity or great-power influence (or both) promote the emergence of international cooperation in regional conflicts? Using machine-coded events data and vector autoregression, time-series analysis of 12 international dyads in the Middle East between 1979 and 1990 and 1991 and 1995 found bilateral reciprocity widespread in both time periods, characterizing nearly all dyads of sustained conflict and a majority of other dyads with various power and proximity characteristics. Significant triangular responses to U.S. actions occurred in only a few cases, although key ones—Iraq with its neighbors and Israel with Palestine. Neither bilateral reciprocity nor triangular response predicted changes in long-term conflict and cooperation. Rather, the presence of one or both of these response patterns appeared to be necessary, but not sufficient, conditions for regional states to increase long-term cooperation.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua S. Goldstein & Jon C. Pevehouse & Deborah J. Gerner & Shibley Telhami, 2001. "Reciprocity, Triangularity, and Cooperation in the Middle East, 1979-97," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 45(5), pages 594-620, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:45:y:2001:i:5:p:594-620
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002701045005003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wagner, R. Harrison, 1983. "The Theory of Games and the Problem of International Cooperation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 330-346, June.
    2. Sims, Christopher A, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 443-449, October.
    3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    4. Keohane, Robert O., 1986. "Reciprocity in international relations," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-27, January.
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    1. Roy Kwon, 2015. "Does Radical Partisan Politics Affect National Income Distributions? Congressional Polarization and Income Inequality in the United States, 1913–2008," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(1), pages 49-64, March.
    2. Mintz Alex & Heo Uk, 2014. "Triads in International Relations: The Effect of Superpower Aid, Trade, and Arms Transfers on Conflict in the Middle East," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 1-19, August.

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