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Conditions of Successful Third-Party Intervention in Intrastate Conflicts

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  • Patrick M. Regan

    (University of Canterbury)

Abstract

Since the end of the cold war, foreign policy makers appear to be devoting increasing amounts of energy to containing intrastate conflicts. They are doing so, moreover, with little guidance from the social science community. This article uses data on all third-party interventions into intrastate conflicts since 1944 to assess historical patterns of intervention strategies and their relative success rates. Building on this, it uses a logit analysis to develop prescriptive outlines for future intervention attempts. The results demonstrate that it is the characteristics of the intervention strategy rather than the characteristics of the conflict that largely determine the success of the intervention.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick M. Regan, 1996. "Conditions of Successful Third-Party Intervention in Intrastate Conflicts," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(2), pages 336-359, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:40:y:1996:i:2:p:336-359
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002796040002006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James D. Fearon, 1994. "Signaling Versus the Balance of Power and Interests," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(2), pages 236-269, June.
    2. Singer, J. David, 1963. "Inter-Nation Influence: A Formal Model," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 420-430, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gupta, Dhruv & Sriram, Karthik, 2018. "Impact of security expenditures in military alliances on violence from non-state actors: Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 338-357.
    2. Björn Gehrmann, 2019. "Third-party diplomacy," HiCN Working Papers 312, Households in Conflict Network.
    3. Vincenzo Bove & Ron Smith, 2011. "The Economics of Peacekeeping," Chapters, in: Derek L. Braddon & Keith Hartley (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Conflict, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. David Carment & Martin Fischer, 2011. "Three’s Company? Towards an Understanding of Third-Party Intervention Effectiveness," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 22, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Fiedler, Charlotte, 2015. "Towers of strength in turbulent times? Assessing the effectiveness of international support to peace and democracy in Kenya and Kyrgyzstan in the aftermath of interethnic violence," IDOS Discussion Papers 6/2015, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    6. Melin, Molly M., 2016. "Business, peace, and world politics: The role of third parties in conflict resolution," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 493-501.

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