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Modeling the Dynamics of Passenger Travel Demand by Using Structural Equations

Author

Listed:
  • T F Golob

    (Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Irvine, CA 92717)

  • H Meurs

    (Bureau Goudappel Coffeng, Parkweg 4, 74115H Deventer, The Netherlands)

Abstract

Levels of demand over time are analyzed for five modes of passenger transportation. The data are for the modes: car driver, car passenger, train, bicycle, and public transit. These data are compiled from week-long travel diaries collected at six-month intervals from a nationwide panel in the Netherlands. Three types of empirical relationships are present in these panel data: (1) autocorrelative relationships, capturing temporal stability in demand for the same mode at different points in time; (2) contemporaneous relationships, capturing complementarity and competition among different modes at the same point in time; and (3) cross-lagged effects, potentially capturing systematic shifts in demand. Simultaneous equation systems are used to test the temporal stability of demand for each mode and the stationarity of the contemporaneous relationships among the modes. The dynamic structure both of trip rates and of travel times are modeled successfully according to several goodness-of-fit indices. The equation systems capture nonstationarity in the contemporaneous relationships, as well as important cross-lagged effects. These results quantify changes in the structure of demand over time in the Netherlands and are shown to be directly related to the event of a public transit fare increase.

Suggested Citation

  • T F Golob & H Meurs, 1988. "Modeling the Dynamics of Passenger Travel Demand by Using Structural Equations," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 20(9), pages 1197-1218, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:20:y:1988:i:9:p:1197-1218
    DOI: 10.1068/a201197
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    Cited by:

    1. Roorda, Matthew J. & Ruiz, Tomás, 2008. "Long- and short-term dynamics in activity scheduling: A structural equations approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 545-562, March.
    2. Golob, Thomas F., 2001. "Structural Equation Modeling For Travel Behavior Research," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt8pb2m1pk, University of California Transportation Center.
    3. Golob, Thomas F., 2003. "Structural equation modeling for travel behavior research," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-25, January.
    4. Ryuichi Kitamura, 2009. "A dynamic model system of household car ownership, trip generation, and modal split: model development and simulation experiment," Transportation, Springer, vol. 36(6), pages 711-732, November.
    5. Golob, Thomas F., 2011. "Structural Equation Modeling For Travel Behavior Research," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt2pn5j58n, University of California Transportation Center.

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