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Inventories and the Business Cycle: Testing a Sequential Trading Model

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  • Benjamin Eden

    (University of Haifa)

Abstract

The uncertain and sequential trading (UST) model of inventories behavior with iid shocks predicts that (a) the beginning of period inventories is a sufficient statistic for past variables and (b) an increase in the beginning of period inventories reduces output, employment, hours per employee, and effort. I find empirical support for the second hypothesis but not for the first. The rejection of the first hypothesis is rather informative and points in the direction of adjustment costs and/or serially correlated shocks. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Eden, 2001. "Inventories and the Business Cycle: Testing a Sequential Trading Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(3), pages 562-574, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:4:y:2001:i:3:p:562-574
    DOI: 10.1006/redy.2000.0125
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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    4. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Michael Woodford, 1993. "Real Effects of Monetary Shocks in an Economy with Sequential Purchases," NBER Working Papers 4250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J., 1988. "Why does inventory investment fluctuate so much?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 247-280.
    6. Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Loan commitments and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 573-605, June.
    7. Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 443-520.
    8. Ramey, Valerie A. & West, Kenneth D., 1999. "Inventories," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 863-923, Elsevier.
    9. Williamson, Stephen D., 1996. "Sequential markets and the suboptimality of the Friedman rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 549-572, June.
    10. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    11. Eden, Benjamin, 1994. "The Adjustment of Prices to Monetary Shocks When Trade Is Uncertain and Sequential," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 493-509, June.
    12. Prescott, Edward C, 1975. "Efficiency of the Natural Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1229-1236, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inventories; business cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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