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Forecasts and evaluation of the 2011 Pan American Games

Author

Listed:
  • Gerard H. Kuper
  • Elmer Sterken

    () (University of Groningen)

Abstract

The current paper predicts the medal tally for the 2011 Pan American Games. The forecast procedure consists of analyzing success at the four latest editions of the Pan American Games at the country level. Potential explanatory variables for medal winning are GDP, population, geographical distance to the Games and home advantage. Our forecasts show that the US takes first place in the medal tally. We expect Mexico to take fourth place wining 37 gold medals. The final results as they were published after the Games prove us right in this respect. However, the forecasts are less precise than similar predictions for the Olympic Games.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerard H. Kuper & Elmer Sterken, 2012. "Forecasts and evaluation of the 2011 Pan American Games," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Negocios, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 9(2), pages 45-60, Julio-Dic.
  • Handle: RePEc:qua:journl:v:9:y:2012:i:2:p:45-60
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    File URL: http://econoquantum.cucea.udg.mx/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/art.-3-Vo.-9-N%C3%BAm.-2-Kuper.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shughart, William F, II & Tollison, Robert D, 1993. "Going for the Gold: Property Rights and Athletic Effort in Transitional Economies," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 263-272.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pan American Games; Medal predictions; Panel data models.;

    JEL classification:

    • R0 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • Z10 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - General

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