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Repenser le soutien de la communauté internationale à l'Europe de l'Est

  • Michel Aglietta
  • Michèle Bailly
  • Christian de Boissieu
  • Jean-Michel Charpin
  • Jean-Paul Dessertine
  • Etienne Lakits
  • Georges Mink
  • Jean-Pierre Page
  • Jacques Sapir
  • Jean Pisani-Ferry

[eng] Rethinking on International Aids for Eastern Europe The transition of the Eastern European countries toward market economies will be longer and more difficult that what had been initially imagined. The collapse of the communist system was generally accompanied by violent therapies including price liberalisation and the opening to international trade. Meanwhile there was an attempt to put into place the actors and the institutions required by an open-market economy, particularly through ambitious privatisation programs. While these therapies first permitted a relative economic stabilization of the Eastern European countries, it quickly become clear that the interdependence which had been organized by the communist regime was initially underestimated. The economic disorganization caused by the collapse of the CAEM led to a sharp decline in trade, and to recessions that were more severe than had been forecast. No rapid recovery could then (or even now) be foreseen, due to the slow progress of structural reforms. The collapse of the communist administration also led to a loss of fiscal revenue. The ex-USSR, which least resembled a market economy, was therefore also the most affected. In this paper, we study mechanisms, especially monetary mechanisms, which could help Eastern Europeancountries to learn how to build an open-market economy, and how to solve the problems raised by economic integration, before they encounter international competition. If the success of the development programs for Eastern European countries requires access to western markets, the coordination among these programs needs to be improved. We thus describe the conditions and the means which would improve the efficiency of international aid. [fre] La transition des pays d'Europe de l'Est vers l'économie de marché sera plus longue et plus coûteuse qu'il n'était prévu à l'origine. En effet, l'effondrement du système communiste s'est accompagnée le plus souvent d'une thérapie de choc comprenant la libération des prix et une ouverture très rapide du commerce vers l'extérieur, tandis que l'on tentait de mettre en place les institutions et les acteurs que requière une économie de marché, notamment au moyen de programmes de privatisations ambitieux. Si ces programmes ont tout d'abord permis une stabilisation économique relative des pays d'Europe de l'Est, il est rapidement apparu que l'interdépendance des économies de l'Est organisée par le régime communiste avait été initialement sous-estimée. La désorganisation économique qu'a provoqué la disparition de l'ex-CAEM s'est traduite par un effondrement des échanges commerciaux entraînant des récessions beaucoup plus fortes que prévu, tandis que la lenteur des réformes structurelles ne permet pas d'entrevoir un redressement rapide. L'effondrement de l'administration communiste s'est également accompagnée d'un tarissement des ressources fiscales. L'ex-URSS, qui était la zone la moins préparée à l'économie de marché, est logiquement la plus atteinte. On étudie dans cet article des mécanismes, en particulier monétaires, qui permettraient aux pays de l'Est de faire entre eux l'apprentissage de l'économie de marché et de l'intégration économique avant d'affronter à découvert la concurrence internationale. Si le succès des programmes de développement suppose que l'on autorise en outre l'accès des pays de l'est aux marchés de l'Ouest, la coordination des programmes mérite d'être améliorée. On se propose donc de redéfinir les conditions et les modalités qui permettraient d'améliorer l'efficacité de l'aide apportée par la communauté internationale.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ofce.1992.1293
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File URL: http://www.persee.fr/doc/ofce_0751-6614_1992_num_42_1_1293
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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Observations et diagnostics économiques : revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 42 (1992)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 199-248

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1992_num_42_1_1293
Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1992.1293
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/ofce

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  1. Peter B. Kenen, 1991. "Transitional Arrangements for Trade and Payments among the CMEA Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(2), pages 235-267, June.
  2. Barry Eichengreen and Marc Uzan., 1992. "The Marshall Plan: Economic Effects and Implications for Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union," Economics Working Papers 92-189, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Landesmann, Michael & Székely, Istvan P., 1991. "Industrial Restructuring and the Reorientation of Trade in Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland," CEPR Discussion Papers 546, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Bofinger, Peter, 1991. "Options for the Payments and Exchange Rate System in Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 545, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Portes, Richard, 1991. "The Transition to Convertibility in Eastern Europe and the USSR," CEPR Discussion Papers 500, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Eichengreen, Barry & Uzan, Marc, 1992. "The Marshall Plan: Economic Effects and Implications for Eastern Europe and the Former USSR," CEPR Discussion Papers 638, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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