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Maîtriser la croissance en Chine dans un contexte de mobilité internationale des capitaux

Listed author(s):
  • Guonan Ma
  • Robert N. McCauley

[fre] Tous les marchés internationaux ont réagi aux craintes d’un brutal ralentissement de l’économie chinoise causé par les mesures prises à l’encontre d’une croissance excessive. En effet, le gouvernement chinois a réagi au récent rebond cyclique par un éventail de mesures administratives et de mesures touchant au crédit, à la liquidité et aux comportements prudentiels, mais sans pour le moment durcir sa politique monétaire en relevant les taux d’intérêt de référence. Mais, dans quelle mesure l’accroissement des flux de capitaux transfrontaliers, sensibles aux rendements relatifs et aux anticipations de change, imposent-ils une contrainte aux responsables politiques chinois ? Depuis 2002, l’accélération des entrées de capitaux, en partie financée par le rapatriement par les banques chinoises de leurs avoirs internationaux dans les banques étrangères, constitue la cause principale de l’accumulation rapide par la Chine de réserves de change. Classification JEL : E52, E58, F32, O53 [eng] Reining in China’s growth in a world of increased capital flows Global markets have all reacted to fears of a disruptive slowdown in China resulting from a policy response to excessive growth. The Chinese government has responded to the latest cyclical upswing with a mix of administrative, credit, prudential and liquidity measures, but not yet with tighter monetary policy defined in terms of higher benchmark interest rates. Various dilemmas facing the authorities have shaped the choice of such a policy mix, and they are taking their time to ascertain its effectiveness in achieving the objective of a measured and selective slowdown. A key question is the extent to which Chinese policy makers are constrained by increased cross-border capital flows that have been responsive to relative yields as well as currency expectations. We argue that since 2002, an acceleration of capital inflows, partly financed by Chinese banks drawing down their overseas claims on international banks, has been the principal driver behind China’s rapid accumulation of foreign reserves. JEL classification : E52, E58, F32, O53

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue d'économie financière.

Volume (Year): 77 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 163-185

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Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2004_num_77_4_4179
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2004.4179
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  1. Guonan Ma & Robert McCauley, 2003. "Opening China’s capital account amid ample dollar liquidity," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), China's capital account liberalisation: international perspective, volume 15, pages 25-34 Bank for International Settlements.
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