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Préférence face au risque et difficultés financières des ménages les plus pauvres

Author

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  • David Crainich
  • Louis Eeckhoudt
  • Véronique Flambard

Abstract

[fre] Une meilleure compréhension des facteurs influençant les difficultés de paiement éprouvées par les ménages est une question économique importante en raison de la prévalence et de l’impact de ces difficultés. L’objectif de l’article est de déterminer si les préférences des individus face au risque modifient leurs probabilités de faire face à des difficultés de paiement. Nous analysons, dans un premier temps, les mécanismes par lesquels la transmission entre l’attitude face au risque et les difficultés financières s’opèrent. Nous partons du constat que la richesse future d’un ménage est aléatoire et effectuons le lien entre la dispersion de sa distribution et la probabilité de défaut de paiement. Nous montrons alors comment des décisions (assurance, prévention, gestion de portefeuille et épargne) influencées par l’attitude face au risque peuvent réduire cette probabilité. Dans un second temps, nous vérifions empiriquement l’influence de l’attitude face au risque sur les difficultés de paiements. Les difficultés financières étant plus fréquentes chez les individus les plus défavorisés économiquement, notre travail se concentre sur les ménages qui vivent en dessous du seuil de pauvreté (défini comme 60 % du niveau de vie médian de la population). À partir de l’enquête Patrimoine 2010 et sur base des choix de loteries proposés par Barsky et al. (1997), nous classons les ménages selon leurs préférences face au risque. À l’aide d’un modèle probit, nous montrons l’effet significatif de l’attitude vis-à-vis du risque, de l’âge, de l’éducation, de la situation familiale et des anticipations de variabilité future du revenu sur la probabilité qu’un ménage pauvre connaisse ou ait connu des difficultés financières. Ainsi nous mettons en évidence le fait que les ménages qui ont une aversion relative au risque plus prononcée sont . moins susceptibles de faire face à ces difficultés.

Suggested Citation

  • David Crainich & Louis Eeckhoudt & Véronique Flambard, 2014. "Préférence face au risque et difficultés financières des ménages les plus pauvres," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 472(1), pages 195-211.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_2014_num_472_1_10497
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.2014.10497
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.2014.10497
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    References listed on IDEAS

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