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Spéculation et parité des taux d'intérêt sans change à terme dans « La théorie des changes » de G.-J. Goschen (1861)

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  • Marie-Thérèse Boyer-Xambeu

Abstract

[eng] The lack of forward exchange markets and the discounting of long bills of exchange specifically determine the profitability of short term capital flows in the 19th century. Even if it results form domestic goals, an interest differential induces speculative movements which lead to gold and silver flows between countries, depending on the prevailing price configurations. The book by G.J. Goschen [The Theory of Foreign Exchanges, 1861] then demonstrates the effectiveness of the discount policy of the Bank of England to restore the exchange rate and to replenish her metallic reserves. [fre] L'absence de marché des changes à terme et l'escompte des lettres longues de change déterminent des conditions spécifiques de profitablité pour les mouvements de capitaux courts au XIXe siècle. Un différentiel d'intérêt, même s'il est encore dû à des objectifs internes, provoque des opérations spéculatives qui, dans certaines configurations de prix, se traduisent par des flux d'or ou d'argent entre pays. L'ouvrage de G. S. Goschen établit sur ces bases l'efficacité d'une politique du taux d'escompte de la Banque d'Angleterre pour rétablir le change et renflouer ses réserves en métal.

Suggested Citation

  • Marie-Thérèse Boyer-Xambeu, 1997. "Spéculation et parité des taux d'intérêt sans change à terme dans « La théorie des changes » de G.-J. Goschen (1861)," Cahiers d'Économie Politique, Programme National Persée, vol. 29(1), pages 21-34.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:caecpo:cep_0154-8344_1997_num_29_1_1207
    DOI: 10.3406/cep.1997.1207
    Note: DOI:10.3406/cep.1997.1207
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eagly, Robert V. & Smith, V. Kerry, 1976. "Domestic and International Integration of the London Money Market, 1731–1789," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 198-212, March.
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