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Research of Estimates of Tax Revenue: An Overview

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  • Ondřej Bayer

Abstract

The paper deals with a summary of findings in the area of tax forecasts. It describes the basic methodology for predicting tax revenues, both in terms of the macroeconomic approach and from a microeconomic perspective. The microeconomic approach used microsimulation methods with methods based on tax elasticities. The macroeconomic approach explains the basic characteristics of regression analysis and time series analysis. It also describes methods for assessing the quality of predictions, together with the distribution of basic statistical error estimate.

Suggested Citation

  • Ondřej Bayer, 2013. "Research of Estimates of Tax Revenue: An Overview," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(3), pages 59-73.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlefa:v:2013:y:2013:i:3:id:107
    DOI: 10.18267/j.efaj.107
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thiess Buettner & Bjoern Kauder, 2010. "Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 313-340, September.
    2. Lee, Young & Gordon, Roger H., 2005. "Tax structure and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(5-6), pages 1027-1043, June.
    3. John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2006. "Modelling Tax Revenue Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4073.
    4. Paul Johnson & Peter Lambert, 1989. "Measuring the responsiveness of income tax revenue to income growth: a review and some UK values," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 1-18, November.
    5. Martin Keene & Peter Thomson, 2007. "An Analysis of Tax Revenue Forecast Errors," Treasury Working Paper Series 07/02, New Zealand Treasury.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Syeda Um Ul Baneen, 2023. "Federal Tax Revenue Forecasting of Pakistan: Alternative Approaches," PIDE-Working Papers 2023:12, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    3. Burak Emil & Nemec Juraj, 2016. "Main Factors Determining the Slovak Tax System Performance," NISPAcee Journal of Public Administration and Policy, Sciendo, vol. 9(2), pages 185-197, December.
    4. Juraj Nemec & Ladislav Pompura & Vladimír Šagát, 2015. "Administrative Costs of Taxation in Slovakia," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(2), pages 51-61.
    5. Fabio Ashtar Telarico, 2022. "Simplify and Improve: Revisiting Bulgaria's Revenue Forecasting Models," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 633-654.

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    JEL classification:

    • H29 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Other

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