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Development tendencies of prediction models with an emphasis on Central Europe

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  • Dagmar Čámská

Abstract

This paper is focused on models predicting corporate financial distress or default (also called and known as prediction or bankruptcy models). This paper contains literature overview connected with aforementioned research topic. The main paper's aim is to describe development tendencies which are divided into three time periods. The development is accented from the point of view of transition economies. The transition economies are represented by Central European countries as the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary. The effort is to put this development of models predicting financial distress in a broader economic and institutional concept. Untraditionally, it does not discuss models' accuracy, robustness and validity for users.

Suggested Citation

  • Dagmar Čámská, 2016. "Development tendencies of prediction models with an emphasis on Central Europe," Ekonomika a Management, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(4).
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnleam:v:2016:y:2016:i:4:id:288
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    2. Rafał Balina & Sławomir Juszczyk, 2014. "Forecasting bankruptcy risk of international commercial road transport companies," International Journal of Management and Enterprise Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 13(1), pages 1-20.
    3. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    4. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 71-111.
    5. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    6. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    7. Zmijewski, Me, 1984. "Methodological Issues Related To The Estimation Of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22, pages 59-82.
    8. João Fernandes, 2005. "Corporate Credit Risk Modeling: Quantitative Rating System And Probability Of Default Estimation," Finance 0505013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bankruptcy models; Transition Economies; Prediction of Financial Distress; Bankrotní modely; Tranzitivní ekonomiky; Předpovídání finančních obtíží;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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