Analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution of China’s air passenger transportation and the impact of policies on passenger flows

The spatial-temporal evolution of air passenger flows in China’s aviation sector is critical for optimizing route networks and capacity allocation, particularly in assessing the efficacy of policy interventions to inform future regulatory frameworks. This study leverages air passenger throughput data spanning prefecture-level cities (2005–2023) and employs the Standard Deviation Ellipse (SDE) method to identify spatial agglomeration patterns in 2008, 2017, 2020, and 2022. A Difference-in-Differences (DID) model is further applied to quantify the causal effects of policy interventions on air transportation dynamics, supplemented by robustness tests and heterogeneity analyses to validate the reliability of the findings. Three key conclusions emerge from the analysis. First, while the spatial distribution of air passenger traffic predominantly aligns with a northeast-southwest axis, the strengthened north-south directional influence (reflected in the increased major-to-minor axis ratio of the SDE) indicates a bidirectional expansion of air transport coverage. Second, the spatial centroid of passenger flows exhibited a directional shift from northwestern to southwestern China between 2005 and 2023, highlighting the rising strategic importance of the southwestern region. Notably, by 2023, a reversed spatial transition emerged, with the centroid gradually reverting toward the northeast, signaling a recalibration of passenger flow patterns. Third, policy impacts display marked regional and urban heterogeneity: eastern China experienced significantly higher passenger growth compared to central, western, and northeastern regions, while provincial capitals and megacities—owing to their resource concentration and policy implementation capacity—demonstrated stronger responsiveness to regulatory measures than smaller prefecture-level cities. These findings provide actionable insights for both industry and policymakers. Airlines may utilize the empirical evidence to refine route planning and capacity adjustments, whereas policymakers could prioritize spatially differentiated regulations to mitigate regional imbalances and foster integrated national aviation development.