IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0293909.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The international spill over effect of American economy on China’s macro-economy based on MCMC-Gibbs sampling algorithm

Author

Listed:
  • Jiamu Hu

Abstract

China’s export benefits from the significant fiscal stimulus in the United States. This paper analyzes the global spillover effect of the American economy on China’s macro-economy using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Gibbs sampling approach, with the goal of improving the ability of China’s financial system to protect against foreign threats. This paper examines the theories of the consequences of uncertainty on macroeconomics first. Then, using medium-sized economic and financial data, the uncertainty index of the American and Chinese economies is built. In order to complete the test and analysis of the dynamic relationship between American economic uncertainty and China’s macro-economy, a Time Varying Parameter-Stochastic Volatility-Vector Autoregression (TVP- VAR) model with random volatility is constructed. The model is estimated using the Gibbs sampling method based on MCMC. For the empirical analysis, samples of China’s and the United States’ economic data from January 2001 to January 2022 were taken from the WIND database and the FRED database, respectively. The data reveal that there are typically fewer than 5 erroneous components in the most estimated parameters of the MCMC model, which suggests that the model’s sampling results are good. China’s pricing level reacted to the consequences of the unpredictability of the American economy by steadily declining, reaching its lowest point during the financial crisis in 2009, and then gradually diminishing. After 2012, the greatest probability density range of 68% is extremely wide and contains 0, indicating that the impact of economic uncertainty in the United States on China’s pricing level is no longer significant. China should therefore focus on creating a community of destiny by working with nations that have economic cooperation to lower systemic financial risks and guarantee the stability of the capital market.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiamu Hu, 2023. "The international spill over effect of American economy on China’s macro-economy based on MCMC-Gibbs sampling algorithm," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(11), pages 1-20, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0293909
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0293909
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0293909
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0293909&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0293909?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jiang, Cuixia & Li, Yuqian & Xu, Qifa & Liu, Yezheng, 2021. "Measuring risk spillovers from multiple developed stock markets to China: A vine-copula-GARCH-MIDAS model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 386-398.
    2. Yang, Lu, 2019. "Connectedness of economic policy uncertainty and oil price shocks in a time domain perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 219-233.
    3. Cao, Guangxi & Xie, Wenhao, 2022. "Asymmetric dynamic spillover effect between cryptocurrency and China's financial market: Evidence from TVP-VAR based connectedness approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    4. Wei, Yu & Qin, Songkun & Li, Xiafei & Zhu, Sha & Wei, Guiwu, 2019. "Oil price fluctuation, stock market and macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence from China before and after the financial crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 23-29.
    5. Yang, Lu, 2023. "Oil price bubbles: The role of network centrality on idiosyncratic sovereign risk," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Qiao, Xingzhi & Zhu, Huiming & Zhang, Zhongqingyang & Mao, Weifang, 2022. "Time-frequency transmission mechanism of EPU, investor sentiment and financial assets: A multiscale TVP-VAR connectedness analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Siklos, Pierre L., 2021. "The macroeconomic response to real and financial factors, commodity prices, and monetary policy: International evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(1).
    8. Lu Yang & Lei Yang & Xue Cui, 2023. "Sovereign default network and currency risk premia," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wei, Yu & Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Yudong, 2022. "Information connectedness of international crude oil futures: Evidence from SC, WTI, and Brent," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Li, Xiafei & Liang, Chao & Chen, Zhonglu & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil volatility with uncertainty indicators: New evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. Qin, Yun & Chen, Jinyu & Dong, Xuesong, 2021. "Oil prices, policy uncertainty and travel and leisure stocks in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    4. Deng, Xiang & Xu, Fang, 2024. "Connectedness between international oil and China's new energy industry chain: A time-frequency analysis based on TVP-VAR model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Bin Mo & He Nie, 2022. "The Impact of RCEP on Dual Circulation and Greater Bay Area — From the Perspective of China’s Stock Market Conditions," Economic Analysis Letters, Anser Press, vol. 1(2), pages 15-22, December.
    6. Si Mohammed, Kamel & Tedeschi, Marco & Mallek, Sabrine & Tarczyńska-Łuniewska, Małgorzata & Zhang, Anqi, 2023. "Realized semi variance quantile connectedness between oil prices and stock market: Spillover from Russian-Ukraine clash," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    7. Guo, Xiaozhu & Wang, Yi & Hao, Yixue & Zhang, Wenwen, 2023. "Spillover effect among carbon bond market, carbon stock market and energy stock market: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    8. Qin, Yun & Zhang, Zitao, 2025. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and China’s producer price index: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Wang, Min & Su, Yuquan, 2023. "How Russian-Ukrainian geopolitical risks affect Chinese commodity and financial markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    10. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yizhi & Vigne, Samuel A. & Ma, Zhenyu, 2023. "Alarming contagion effects: The dangerous ripple effect of extreme price spillovers across crude oil, carbon emission allowance, and agriculture futures markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Raza, Syed Ali & Masood, Amna & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Urom, Christian, 2023. "Forecasting the volatility of precious metals prices with global economic policy uncertainty in pre and during the COVID-19 period: Novel evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    12. Yao, Yinhong & Chen, Xiuwen & Chen, Zhensong, 2025. "Portfolio tail risk forecasting for international financial assets: A GARCH-MIDAS-R-Vine copula model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. Wu, Xiangling & Ding, Shusheng, 2023. "The impact of the Bitcoin price on carbon neutrality: Evidence from futures markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    14. Lei Song & Yu Chen, 2025. "Does a non-performing assets disposal fund help control systemic risk? Evidence from an interbank financial network in China," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-45, December.
    15. Wang, Xinya & Rong, Xueyun & Yin, Lei, 2024. "Discerning the impact of global geopolitical risks on China's energy futures market spillovers: Evidence from higher-order moments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    16. Lin, Boqiang & Bai, Rui, 2021. "Oil prices and economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from global, oil importers, and exporters’ perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    17. Ayesha Siddiqui & Mohd Shamim & Mohammad Asif & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan, 2022. "Are Stock Markets among BRICS Members Integrated? A Regime Shift-Based Co-Integration Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-25, April.
    18. Rim El Khoury & Muneer M. Alshater & Onur Polat, 2025. "Japanese stock market sectoral dynamics: A time and frequency analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 1249-1274, April.
    19. Li, Yanglin & Wang, Shaoping & Zhao, Qing, 2021. "When does the stock market recover from a crisis?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    20. Yang, Lu & Cui, Xue & Yang, Lei & Hamori, Shigeyuki & Cai, Xiaojing, 2023. "Risk spillover from international financial markets and China's macro-economy: A MIDAS-CoVaR-QR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 55-69.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0293909. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.