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Adequate life-expectancy reconstruction for adult human mortality data

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  • László Németh
  • Trifon I Missov

Abstract

Mortality information of populations is aggregated in life tables that serve as a basis for calculation of life expectancy and various life disparity measures. Conventional life-table methods address right-censoring inadequately by assuming a constant hazard in the last open-ended age group. As a result, life expectancy can be substantially distorted, especially in the case when the last age group in a life table contains a large proportion of the population. Previous research suggests addressing censoring in a gamma-Gompertz-Makeham model setting as this framework incorporates all major features of adult mortality. In this article, we quantify the difference between gamma-Gompertz-Makeham life expectancy values and those published in the largest publicly available high-quality life-table databases for human populations, drawing attention to populations for which life expectancy values should be reconsidered. We also advocate the use of gamma-Gompertz-Makeham life expectancy for three reasons. First, model-based life-expectancy calculation successfully handles the problem of data quality or availability, resulting in severe censoring due to the unification of a substantial number of deaths in the last open-end age group. Second, model-based life expectancies are preferable in the case of data scarcity, i.e. when data contain numerous age groups with zero death counts: here, we provide an example of hunter-gatherer populations. Third, gamma-Gompertz-Makeham-based life expectancy values are almost identical to the ones provided by the major high-quality human mortality databases that use more complicated procedures. Applying a gamma-Gompertz-Makeham model to adult mortality data can be used to revise life-expectancy trends for historical populations that usually serve as input for mortality forecasts.

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  • László Németh & Trifon I Missov, 2018. "Adequate life-expectancy reconstruction for adult human mortality data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(6), pages 1-8, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0198485
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0198485
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Steinsaltz & Kenneth Wachter, 2006. "Understanding Mortality Rate Deceleration and Heterogeneity," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 19-37.
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    1. Yaya OlaOluwa S. & Otekunrin Oluwaseun A. & Ogbonna Ahamuefula E., 2021. "Life expectancy in West African countries: Evidence of convergence and catching up with the north," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 75-88, March.

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