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Modeling Radicalization Phenomena in Heterogeneous Populations

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  • Serge Galam
  • Marco Alberto Javarone

Abstract

The phenomenon of radicalization is investigated within a mixed population composed of core and sensitive subpopulations. The latest includes first to third generation immigrants. Respective ways of life may be partially incompatible. In case of a conflict core agents behave as inflexible about the issue. In contrast, sensitive agents can decide either to live peacefully adjusting their way of life to the core one, or to oppose it with eventually joining violent activities. The interplay dynamics between peaceful and opponent sensitive agents is driven by pairwise interactions. These interactions occur both within the sensitive population and by mixing with core agents. The update process is monitored using a Lotka-Volterra-like Ordinary Differential Equation. Given an initial tiny minority of opponents that coexist with both inflexible and peaceful agents, we investigate implications on the emergence of radicalization. Opponents try to turn peaceful agents to opponents driving radicalization. However, inflexible core agents may step in to bring back opponents to a peaceful choice thus weakening the phenomenon. The required minimum individual core involvement to actually curb radicalization is calculated. It is found to be a function of both the majority or minority status of the sensitive subpopulation with respect to the core subpopulation and the degree of activeness of opponents. The results highlight the instrumental role core agents can have to hinder radicalization within the sensitive subpopulation. Some hints are outlined to favor novel public policies towards social integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Serge Galam & Marco Alberto Javarone, 2016. "Modeling Radicalization Phenomena in Heterogeneous Populations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(5), pages 1-15, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0155407
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0155407
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    12. Lagorio, C. & Migueles, M.V. & Braunstein, L.A. & López, E. & Macri, P.A., 2009. "Effects of epidemic threshold definition on disease spread statistics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(5), pages 755-763.
    13. Javarone, Marco Alberto, 2014. "Social influences in opinion dynamics: The role of conformity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 414(C), pages 19-30.
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    15. Meysam Alizadeh & Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, 2015. "Activation Regimes in Opinion Dynamics: Comparing Asynchronous Updating Schemes," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 18(3), pages 1-8.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Santoprete, Manuele, 2019. "Countering violent extremism: A mathematical model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 358(C), pages 314-329.
    3. Sooknanan, Joanna & Seemungal, Terence A.R., 2023. "Criminals and their models - a review of epidemiological models describing criminal behaviour," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 458(C).
    4. Boris Podobnik & Marko Jusup & Dejan Kovac & H. E. Stanley, 2017. "Predicting the Rise of EU Right-Wing Populism in Response to Unbalanced Immigration," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-12, August.
    5. Podobnik, Boris & Kirbis, Ivona Skreblin & Koprcina, Maja & Stanley, H.E., 2019. "Emergence of the unified right- and left-wing populism—When radical societal changes become more important than ideology," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 459-474.
    6. Han, Wenchen & Gao, Shun & Huang, Changwei & Yang, Junzhong, 2022. "Non-consensus states in circular opinion model with repulsive interaction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 585(C).
    7. Markus Brede, 2019. "How Does Active Participation Affect Consensus: Adaptive Network Model of Opinion Dynamics and Influence Maximizing Rewiring," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-16, June.
    8. Crokidakis, Nuno & Sigaud, Lucas, 2021. "Modeling the evolution of drinking behavior: A Statistical Physics perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 570(C).
    9. Santoprete, Manuele & Xu, Fei, 2018. "Global stability in a mathematical model of de-radicalization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 151-161.
    10. Marco Alberto Javarone & Daniele Marinazzo, 2018. "Dilution of Ferromagnets via a Random Graph-Based Strategy," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-11, April.
    11. Si, Xia-Meng & Wang, Wen-Dong & Zhai, Chun-Qing & Ma, Yan, 2017. "A topic evolution model with sentiment and selective attention," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 480-491.
    12. Crokidakis, Nuno & Galam, Serge, 2022. "After 2018 Bolsonaro victory, is a 2022 remake feasible?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
    13. Brandon Shapiro & Andrew Crooks, 2023. "Drone strikes and radicalization: an exploration utilizing agent-based modeling and data applied to Pakistan," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 415-433, September.

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