IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0070211.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Intervention-Based Stochastic Disease Eradication

Author

Listed:
  • Lora Billings
  • Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero
  • Brandon Lindley
  • Ira B Schwartz

Abstract

Disease control is of paramount importance in public health, with infectious disease extinction as the ultimate goal. Although diseases may go extinct due to random loss of effective contacts where the infection is transmitted to new susceptible individuals, the time to extinction in the absence of control may be prohibitively long. Intervention controls are typically defined on a deterministic schedule. In reality, however, such policies are administered as a random process, while still possessing a mean period. Here, we consider the effect of randomly distributed intervention as disease control on large finite populations. We show explicitly how intervention control, based on mean period and treatment fraction, modulates the average extinction times as a function of population size and rate of infection spread. In particular, our results show an exponential improvement in extinction times even though the controls are implemented using a random Poisson distribution. Finally, we discover those parameter regimes where random treatment yields an exponential improvement in extinction times over the application of strictly periodic intervention. The implication of our results is discussed in light of the availability of limited resources for control.

Suggested Citation

  • Lora Billings & Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero & Brandon Lindley & Ira B Schwartz, 2013. "Intervention-Based Stochastic Disease Eradication," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(8), pages 1-9, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0070211
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0070211
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0070211
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0070211&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0070211?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shannon L. LaDeau & A. Marm Kilpatrick & Peter P. Marra, 2007. "West Nile virus emergence and large-scale declines of North American bird populations," Nature, Nature, vol. 447(7145), pages 710-713, June.
    2. Nicholas C. Grassly & Christophe Fraser & Geoffrey P. Garnett, 2005. "Host immunity and synchronized epidemics of syphilis across the United States," Nature, Nature, vol. 433(7024), pages 417-421, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eugenio Valdano & Davide Colombi & Chiara Poletto & Vittoria Colizza, 2023. "Epidemic graph diagrams as analytics for epidemic control in the data-rich era," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Luisa Barzon & Monia Pacenti & Elisa Franchin & Laura Squarzon & Enrico Lavezzo & Margherita Cattai & Riccardo Cusinato & Giorgio Palù, 2013. "The Complex Epidemiological Scenario of West Nile Virus in Italy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-21, September.
    3. Michael C. Wimberly & Paolla Giacomo & Lon Kightlinger & Michael B. Hildreth, 2013. "Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology of Human West Nile Virus Disease in South Dakota," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-19, October.
    4. David Aadland & David Finnoff & Kevin X. D. Huang, 2016. "Behavioral Origins of Epidemiological Bifurcations," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 16-00004, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    5. Ludivine Taieb & Antoinette Ludwig & Nick H. Ogden & Robbin L. Lindsay & Mahmood Iranpour & Carl A. Gagnon & Dominique J. Bicout, 2020. "Bird Species Involved in West Nile Virus Epidemiological Cycle in Southern Québec," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-19, June.
    6. Chryssi Giannitsarou & Stephen Kissler & Flavio Toxvaerd, 2021. "Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 321-338, September.
    7. Marcela Suarez-Rubio & Scott Wilson & Peter Leimgruber & Todd Lookingbill, 2013. "Threshold Responses of Forest Birds to Landscape Changes around Exurban Development," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(6), pages 1-11, June.
    8. Aagaard, Kevin & Lockwood, Julie L. & Green, Edwin J., 2016. "A Bayesian approach for characterizing uncertainty in declaring a population collapse," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 328(C), pages 78-84.
    9. Aadland David & Finnoff David C. & Huang Kevin X.D., 2013. "Syphilis Cycles," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 297-348, June.
    10. Martial L Ndeffo Mbah & Christopher A Gilligan, 2011. "Resource Allocation for Epidemic Control in Metapopulations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-10, September.
    11. Johnny A. Uelmen & Charles Brokopp & Jonathan Patz, 2020. "A 15 Year Evaluation of West Nile Virus in Wisconsin: Effects on Wildlife and Human Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-24, March.
    12. Cécile Beck & Miguel Angel Jimenez-Clavero & Agnès Leblond & Benoît Durand & Norbert Nowotny & Isabelle Leparc-Goffart & Stéphan Zientara & Elsa Jourdain & Sylvie Lecollinet, 2013. "Flaviviruses in Europe: Complex Circulation Patterns and Their Consequences for the Diagnosis and Control of West Nile Disease," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-35, November.
    13. David Aadland & David Finnoff & Kevin x.d. Huang, 2013. "The Equilibrium Dynamics of Economic Epidemiology," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 13-00003, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    14. Rodney P. Jones, 2019. "The calendar year fallacy: The danger of reliance on calendar year data in end‐of‐life capacity and financial planning," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 1533-1543, October.
    15. Alexander C Keyel & Oliver Elison Timm & P Bryon Backenson & Catharine Prussing & Sarah Quinones & Kathleen A McDonough & Mathias Vuille & Jan E Conn & Philip M Armstrong & Theodore G Andreadis & Laur, 2019. "Seasonal temperatures and hydrological conditions improve the prediction of West Nile virus infection rates in Culex mosquitoes and human case counts in New York and Connecticut," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-32, June.
    16. Ryan J Harrigan & Henri A Thomassen & Wolfgang Buermann & Robert F Cummings & Matthew E Kahn & Thomas B Smith, 2010. "Economic Conditions Predict Prevalence of West Nile Virus," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(11), pages 1-8, November.
    17. Andriani Marka & Alexandros Diamantidis & Anna Papa & George Valiakos & Serafeim C. Chaintoutis & Dimitrios Doukas & Persefoni Tserkezou & Alexios Giannakopoulos & Konstantinos Papaspyropoulos & Eleni, 2013. "West Nile Virus State of the Art Report of MALWEST Project," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-77, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0070211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.