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HIV Model Parameter Estimates from Interruption Trial Data including Drug Efficacy and Reservoir Dynamics

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  • Rutao Luo
  • Michael J Piovoso
  • Javier Martinez-Picado
  • Ryan Zurakowski

Abstract

Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) have had significant impact on understanding HIV disease dynamics and optimizing patient treatment. A model that characterizes the essential disease dynamics can be used for prediction only if the model parameters are identifiable from clinical data. Most previous parameter identification studies for HIV have used sparsely sampled data from the decay phase following the introduction of therapy. In this paper, model parameters are identified from frequently sampled viral-load data taken from ten patients enrolled in the previously published AutoVac HAART interruption study, providing between 69 and 114 viral load measurements from 3–5 phases of viral decay and rebound for each patient. This dataset is considerably larger than those used in previously published parameter estimation studies. Furthermore, the measurements come from two separate experimental conditions, which allows for the direct estimation of drug efficacy and reservoir contribution rates, two parameters that cannot be identified from decay-phase data alone. A Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo method is used to estimate the model parameter values, with initial estimates obtained using nonlinear least-squares methods. The posterior distributions of the parameter estimates are reported and compared for all patients.

Suggested Citation

  • Rutao Luo & Michael J Piovoso & Javier Martinez-Picado & Ryan Zurakowski, 2012. "HIV Model Parameter Estimates from Interruption Trial Data including Drug Efficacy and Reservoir Dynamics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(7), pages 1-12, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0040198
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0040198
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David D. Ho & Avidan U. Neumann & Alan S. Perelson & Wen Chen & John M. Leonard & Martin Markowitz, 1995. "Rapid Turnover of Plasma Virions and CD4 Lymphocytes in HIV-1 Infection," Working Papers 95-01-002, Santa Fe Institute.
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    1. Alison L Hill & Daniel I S Rosenbloom & Janet D Siliciano & Robert F Siliciano, 2016. "Insufficient Evidence for Rare Activation of Latent HIV in the Absence of Reservoir-Reducing Interventions," PLOS Pathogens, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(8), pages 1-6, August.

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